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Under Pressure As Global Supply Pipeline Swells & With EGBs On Defensive

GILTS

Gilts trade lower, with spill over from a hawkish ECB sources report and swelling IG supply pipeline pressuring core global FI markets.

  • Uptick from lows in oil & firmer-than-flash final Eurozone manufacturing PMI data also noted.
  • Futures through Friday’s lows and a couple of Fibonacci supports, hitting 98.11.
  • Round number support comes in at 98.00, protecting next Fibonacci support (97.91).
  • Yields 2.5-4.5bp higher across the curve, 10s lead the sell off.
  • SONIA futures flat to -5.5, at/just off session lows.
  • BoE-dated OIS still fully discounts a 25bp cut through the Nov MPC.
  • Further out, ~38bp of cuts are priced through year end vs. ~40bp late Friday.
  • The local calendar is relatively limited this week, headlined by final PMIs, syndicated supply (4.375% Jan-40 gilt) and an appearance from BoE’s Breeden (moderating a panel discussing supervisory matters).
  • That should leave focus on wider macro matters for the most part , with U.S. labour market data set to dominate.
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Gilts trade lower, with spill over from a hawkish ECB sources report and swelling IG supply pipeline pressuring core global FI markets.

  • Uptick from lows in oil & firmer-than-flash final Eurozone manufacturing PMI data also noted.
  • Futures through Friday’s lows and a couple of Fibonacci supports, hitting 98.11.
  • Round number support comes in at 98.00, protecting next Fibonacci support (97.91).
  • Yields 2.5-4.5bp higher across the curve, 10s lead the sell off.
  • SONIA futures flat to -5.5, at/just off session lows.
  • BoE-dated OIS still fully discounts a 25bp cut through the Nov MPC.
  • Further out, ~38bp of cuts are priced through year end vs. ~40bp late Friday.
  • The local calendar is relatively limited this week, headlined by final PMIs, syndicated supply (4.375% Jan-40 gilt) and an appearance from BoE’s Breeden (moderating a panel discussing supervisory matters).
  • That should leave focus on wider macro matters for the most part , with U.S. labour market data set to dominate.