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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RUSSIA
USD/RUB ANALYSIS
- USD/RUB takes out key bear trigger at 72.6566, with a close below this level signalling a possible deeper push lower after ~3-months of consolidation period between 73-76.50
- RUB is still extremely undervalued relative to oil market valuations and risk proxy peers TRY, ZAR & MXN and has been pegged weaker due to weak oil markets and embedded sanctions risk premia, which have mostly proven overblown to date. The red line indicated in the figure shows the approximate March 2020 Covid starting point (~65.31, 11.24% below current levels).
- Expectations for 50-100bp of rates hikes in 2021 towards the neutral rate (5-6%) and the eventual establishment of a disinflationary trajectory over the medium-term this should see real yield differentials widen, bolstering carry in RUB assets.
- USD/RUB Techs also confirm a bearish picture:
- RSI indicating bearish momentum is well-entrenched (holding around 36.17)
- MACD is below the signal line with the histogram building to the downside
- Next major support levels seen at 72.0990 & 70.5565
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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