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Unemployment Rates Offer A Not Overly Surprising Hawkish Angle

US DATA
  • The unemployment rate came in lower than expected, printing a ‘genuine’ 3.5% with 3.50% (cons 3.6) after 3.57%, although as we noted in the preview there was a healthy share of analysts looking for such a move.
  • From the household survey, employment (+268k) outstripped the labor force (+152k).
  • The participation rate was exactly the same at 62.58% (in line) as it remains nearly 1pp below pre-pandemic levels. Prime-age participation inched a tenth lower to 83.4% (but still 0.4pps above pre-pandemic recent highs after its recent push higher), offset by a rare push increase from the 55+ cohort in what could be seen as potentially positive for future labour supply if it’s continued.
  • On a more hawkish angle, the U6 underemployment rate fell back 0.2pps to 6.7%, with those working part-time for economic reasons falling -191k after a particularly strong +452k increase in June.

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