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UniCredit Call Change - Expects June Hold

SNB

UniCredit now expects the SNB to hold its policy rate at its June 20 meeting, driven by a "robust Swiss economy" and "slightly higher inflation rates in recent months".

  • UniCredit was looking for a 25bps rate cut before.
  • They note that there will likely be limited guidance on the rate path ahead in the meeting, "especially for the second half of 2024".
  • There seems to emerge a dichotomy between market pricing and analyst expectations for the June meeting - OIS-implied expected easing for the decision climbed to around 19bps today, suggesting around a 75% chance of a cut next week - while analysts seem to be split more 50:50 between the two potential outcomes, as of now.

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