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Unicredit is forecasting a +0.3% M/M headline and +0.2% core CPI print in the August data release out today, softer than consensus - but sees the risks to those figures as skewed to the upside.
- They note in particular that used car prices fell 0.4% per the Manheim survey, while the spread of Delta "probably weighed on airfares and hotel prices."
- They see CPI as having peaked but likely to remain elevated "well into 2022 as supply-demand imbalances persist."
Barclays expects a 0.4% headline print, with core at 0.3%, "driven by firming in both goods and services prices."
- They "expect the impulse to inflation to fade into year-end."