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UniCredit View Following the BOE MPR

BOE
  • UniCredit states that both the updated economic projections and forward guidance "are less dovish than we would expect, given the weak starting point of the UK economy and the substantial risks ahead (related to the path for the virus, the withdrawal of employment support schemes later this year, and Brexit)."
  • UniCredit notes that the BOE expect GDP "to recover its pre-COVID level around the end of 2021. In contrast, we do not expect the 4Q19 level of GDP to be reached until 2023." And regarding employment, "the MPC now sees the unemployment rate rising to about 7.5% by the end of the year – whereas we see it rising to 10%."
  • UniCredit "think it's likely the Committee will need to do more easing, probably later this year, via an increase in its target stock of asset purchases. Negative rates seem unlikely, at least in the near term."
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