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Upcoming changes to MPC members - no impact on today's vote

BOE
  • Just a reminder that today will be Broadbent's last MPC meeting with Lombardelli replacing him as Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy on 1 July (and hence at the August meeting). We don't think that has any real bearing on how Broadbent will vote today - we still expect him to vote for unchanged rates.
  • August will be Haskel's last meeting. He remains one of the more hawkish members of the MPC despite having moved away from voting for further hikes at both the March and May meetings.
  • His replacement has yet to be confirmed. As an external member of the MPC she is officially appointed by the Chancellor (so there will be no appointment before the elections have taken place and the cabinet confirmed but based on current polls it looks like the incoming Chancellor will be Rachel Reeves).
  • Note that the last external MPC member to be appointed was Megan Greene. She was interviewed by a panel comprising of Clare Lombardelli (the incoming BOE Dep Governor before she had been appointed, and was ex-Chief Economic Advisor at the Treasury), James Benford (Director of Economics at the Treasury until February 2023) and Dame Kate Barker (external member of the MPC from 2001 to 2010).
  • We would expect this process to be continuing despite the election blackout period - although the new Chancellor will of course have ultimate sign off. There is a risk that with the delays to the process, Haskel's replacement isn't in place by the September MPC meeting (depending on the length of gardening leave). In that scenario with eight MPC members, Governor Bailey would have the deciding vote.
  • Note that Chief Economist Huw Pill's term also ends on 5 September but he is eligible for another term (which we would expect).
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