UPDATE: UK Data Forecasts - September BOE MPC Policy Decision

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - No major surprises are expected from policymakers at the MPC

meeting scheduled for September 13 (minutes/decision published September 14),

according to the 22 analysts polled in our preliminary forecast poll.

     Exchange rate induced rise in prices and an historically tight labour

market continue to test MPC's member's tolerance of above-target inflation, but

the general view of analysts is that the data seen since the last meeting in

August would not have done much to convince them to start a tightening cycle.

     Of those who expressed a forecast for the Bank Rate vote, all see it at

7-2, presumably with Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders again the dissenters.

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                                   Sep                  Sep                  Sep

                                   BOE                  BOE                  BOE

                   MPC Policy Decision  MPC Policy Decision  MPC Policy Decision

                           Bank Rate %           Unch. Vote            Hike Vote

Date Out                        14-Sep               14-Sep               14-Sep

Median                             0.3                  7.0                  2.0

Forecast High                      0.3                  7.0                  2.0

Forecast Low                       0.3                  7.0                  2.0

Standard

Deviation                          0.0                  0.0                  0.0

Count                               22                    8                    8

Prior                             0.25                  6.0                  2.0

ABN Amro                          0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Barclays                          0.25                  7.0                  2.0

Berenberg                         0.25                  N/A                  N/A

BofAML                            0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Capital Economics                 0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Credit Suisse                     0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Commerzbank                       0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Daiwa                             0.25                  N/A                  N/A

HSBC                              0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Investec                          0.25                  7.0                  2.0

JP Morgan                         0.25                  7.0                  2.0

LBBW                              0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Lloyds TSB                        0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Natixis                           0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Nomura                            0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Oxford Economics                  0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Pantheon                          0.25                  7.0                  2.0

RBC                               0.25                  7.0                  2.0

Scotia                            0.25                  7.0                  2.0

Stan Chart                        0.25                  7.0                  2.0

Societe Generale                  0.25                  N/A                  N/A

UniCredit                         0.25                  7.0                  2.0

     Both McCafferty and Saunders have gone on record defending their hawkish

stance and they are not expected to flip back to the dovish side of the table.

     That means eyes will be fixed on two other committee members -- Andy

Haldane and Dave Ramsden.

     Earlier this summer, BOE Chief Economist, Haldane, voiced his opinion that

rates could be hiked before the close of the year. This excited markets given it

came only a day after Governor Mark Carney dampened speculation of a hike.

     "Provided the data are still on track, I do think that beginning the

process of withdrawing some of the incremental stimulus provided last August

would be prudent moving into the second half of the year," said Haldane in a

June 21 speech.

     Haldane ultimately voted to keep the Bank Rate unchanged as he had not seen

the pickup in wages he would have like to have seen and conceding there was

still "some chance" of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the economy.

     Ramsden, on the other hand, is more of an unknown quantity and having only

started his tenure as the Bank's Deputy Governor of Banking and Markets on

September 4. According to city analysts, he is seen voting with Carney in

keeping the Bank Rate unchanged.

     As the Treasury's chief economic advisor, Ramsden has ample experience with

central banking matters, having previously advised current and former

chancellors Philip Hammond and George Osborne on the government's austerity

package following the crisis.

     Thus with talk the potential unwind of QE gaining traction, not only in the

UK but across other advanced economies, Ramsden's introduction to the MPC may

see communication on this subject increase.

     Along with the unanimous view among the analysts polled that the Committee

would keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.25%, they saw the stock of assets

purchased as part of the QE programme also unchanged -- Gilts at stg435bn and

Corporate Bonds at stg10bn.

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                                    Sep                      Sep

                                    BOE                      BOE

                    MPC Policy Decision      MPC Policy Decision

                     Gilt Purch Stg bln  Corp Bond Purch Stg bln

Date Out                         14-Sep                   14-Sep

Median                            435.0                     10.0

Forecast High                     435.0                     10.0

Forecast Low                      435.0                     10.0

Standard Deviation                  0.0                      0.0

Count                                14                        9

Prior                             435.0                     10.0

ABN Amro                          435.0                      N/A

Barclays                          435.0                     10.0

Berenberg                         435.0                      N/A

BofAML                            435.0                     10.0

Credit Suisse                     435.0                     10.0

HSBC                              435.0                     10.0

Investec                          435.0                     10.0

Lloyds TSB                        435.0                     10.0

Natixis                           435.0                      N/A

Nomura                            435.0                      N/A

Oxford Economics                  435.0                     10.0

RBC                               435.0                     10.0

Societe Generale                  435.0                     10.0

UniCredit                         435.0                      N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]