Updates on UK furlough numbers

A data dump in terms of the numbers of people on furlough in the UK. The numbers are roughly in line with expectations. It's still another month or two until we get anything definite in terms of how many of these furloughed workers kept their jobs past the end of September, although anecdotal evidence is looking more promising than originally expected (more in line with the BoE view than the consensus sell-side view).

• From the govt's CJRS statistics (provisional numbers):
  • Employees on full furlough end of July 826.2k, end of August 727.7k
  • Flexible furlough: 746.0k in July, 595.1k in August,
• BoE Decision Maker Survey:
  • Full furlough: 1.3% in September from 1.8% in August
• ONS Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 7 October 2021:
  • "The proportion of businesses' workforce reported to be on full or partial furlough leave (the HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS)) fell to 5% in early September 2021 (representing a provisional approximate range of between 4% to 6% of businesses' workforce) after remaining unchanged throughout August 2021 at 6%."
  • "The estimated 5% of businesses' workforce reported to be on full or partial furlough leave in early September 2021 suggests that approximately 1.1 to 1.6 million people were furloughed within the industries surveyed in BICS. Of the workforce reported to be on furlough, a higher proportion were partially furloughed than fully furloughed, with 2% of the workforce (approximately 0.3 to 0.8 million people) reported to be fully furloughed."