Free Trial

Upside NBP Forecasts Threaten Dovish Stance; EUR/PLN Techs Biased Higher

POLAND
  • EUR/PLN is trading mostly flat at the open after pulling back towards 4.52 on a lift in the greenback.
  • Focus this week will be on the NBP where we will receive some forecast reviews. Interestingly the expectation is for both growth and inflation to be hawkishly revised higher, but the NBP will likely keep rates on hold and stick with its dovish rhetoric.
  • Higher administrative prices and firmer oil are likely to peg inflation higher, while a more resilient than expected performance in the second lockdown may see GDP forecasts lifted as well.
  • The statement itself may not be much of a market mover, but Glapinski's Friday statement will be watched closely for any shift in tone to the hawkish side and discussion of FX intervention - which has been muted in recent weeks.
  • Daily chart looking biased higher after a strong bearish engulfing candle and bullish dragonfly doji candle saw spot close above the 100dma and reject the 50dma.
  • Sup1: 4.5179, Sup2: 4.5085, Res1: 4.5227, Res2: 4.5272
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.