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Uruguay CB Minutes Suggest Room For Further Easing Ahead, JPMorgan Expect Rate Hold

LATAM
  • Ignacio Berti, who represents the opposition Broad Front party on the central bank’s three-member board of directors, thinks low inflation and a weak economy justify more rate cuts going forward, according to minutes from the Dec. 29 policy meeting.
  • In contrast, JPMorgan don’t see room for further monetary policy easing unless inflation expectations inside the target. With the r* estimated by the CBU at 2.4% according to the latest IPOM and average inflation expectations by the policy horizon at 6.5%, the neutral nominal policy rate stands at 9%, in line with the current policy rate.
    • JPM thus hold to their call for the policy rate unchanged at 9% until 2Q24, when we expect headline inflation to reach the midpoint of the inflation target range, creating some (modest) room to cut, conditional on inflation expectations moving lower.
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