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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
DATA REACT
September's retail sales report was much better than expected (and with a higher revision to August), and the underlying figures all paint a very solid picture of the US consumer. Overall sales came in at +0.7% M/M (vs +0.9% prior revised) vs expectations of an 0.2% decline, while ex-auto and gas was +0.7% (vs +0.4% expected) and control group was +0.8% (vs +0.6% expected).
- There were a few areas that stand out on the weak side: restaurant growth is flatlining (a Delta casualty?) though not reversing; electronics/appliance and health/personal care purchases contracted.
- Of course, large inflation swings make it unusually difficult to assess the underlying dynamics from nominal figures. And cynics might also point out that consumers may be front-running supply shortages ahead of Christmas (general merchandise, sporting goods).
- Apart from a few areas though, it's a significant beat, and all but confirms US consumption was healthy at the end of 3Q. And if there were any question left about whether the Fed would initiate a taper in November, this report probably dispels most of the doubt.
- Markets have responded accordingly, with the Tsy curve bear flattening (2Yr yields up 2.5bp), with the DXY dollar index briefly testing session highs.
Source: Census Bureau
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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