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US CPI: "Underwhelming" And "Weird", With Svcs/Goods Divergence

DATA REACT

A couple of immediate reactions to the inflation data miss:

  • BMO FICC: "Within the details we see apparel was up +2.2% vs. +0.9% Dec. Used cars and trucks continued to decline showing -0.9% for the second consecutive month -- this had been one of the biggest drivers keeping core-CPI up during the second half of 2020 as people left urban centers for the suburbs and bid up car prices as well as the nature of the pandemic leaving public transportation an unattractive option...Overall, an underwhelming read on realized inflation -- not a game changer for forward expectations however."
  • Enduring Investments' Michael Ashton: "This number is weird all over in that many m/m changes are almost identical to last month's changes...overall, core services dropped from 1.6% y/y to 1.3% y/y (!) while core goods stayed at 1.7% y/y. I rather expected the latter to rise, especially with the apparel jump, so will have to dig deep on that one."
  • Renaissance Macro: "The important story from CPI is that the gap between core goods & core services continues to widen. Core goods tend to be flexible, while core services are sticky. So, for now, if core services ain't picking up, it's hard to see a strong case for a broader inflation pick-up"

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