US Cr Mkt Week Ahead: ISM Non Manuf & CPI Bookend Dec Minutes

CHICAGO (MNI) - The U.S. government shutdown continues unabated. However,

funding for the Department of Labor has already been approved through September

2019 and the Department itself and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are unaffected

by the partial shutdown. 

As a result, minutes from the December 19 FOMC will be released Wednesday as

scheduled, as well as as weekly claims, inflation data and ISM nonmanufacturing

survey.

Multiple Fed speakers are expected to give their economic outlook and views on

monetary policy this week.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic early Monday and

Wednesday, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans and Boston

Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren at separate events Wednesday,

prior to the minutes release.

Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions include 13W and 26W bills Monday, while the

Treasury's 3-, 10- and 30Y auctions kick off Tuesday with $38B 3Y notes.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: ISM Non-manufacturing Index (60.7, 58.0); November factory new orders

(-2.1%, 0.5%).

RBS economists expect the ISM survey to "signal solid momentum at end of 2018." 

"we look for the headline index to have remained relatively steady in December

(unlike its factory counterpart), slipping only modestly from 60.7 in November

to 59.4 (close to the year-to-date average)."

Barclays on factory orders said "with the advance estimates for durable goods in

hand, we expect overall factory orders to move up 0.4% m/m in November. We

expect the estimates for durable components to be little revised."

- Tuesday: November trade balance (-$55.5B, -$52.9B); Nov consumer credit

($25.4B, $20.0B).

- Wednesday: December 18-19 FOMC minutes release.

On the December minutes, Barclays anticipates "emphasis on further rate hikes as

being dependent on the evolution of incoming data. We expect the FOMC to clarify

risks to the US outlook stemming from the slowing in some major foreign

economies as well as the volatility in financial markets, although we expect the

minutes to downplay the risks to the US economy.

- Thursday: 05-January jobless claims (220k, 215k); Nov wholesale inventories

and sales.

- Friday: December CPI (0.0%, -0.2%), CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.2%, 0.2%).

Morgan Stanley economists "expect core CPI to post a solid 0.24%

month-over-month gain in December, which would mark the strongest print since

July." 

MS cites an "acceleration in both core goods (+0.19% in December after +0.16% in

November) and core services (+0.25% after +0.21%)," while "declining oil prices

continue to hold down energy prices in CPI, which we expect to post a large 4.0%

drop."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

07-Jan 1000 Nov factory new orders (-2.1%, 0.5%)

07-Jan 1000 Nov factory orders ex transport (0.3%, --)

07-Jan 1000 Dec ISM Non-manufacturing Index (60.7, 58.0)

07-Jan 1000 Dec ETI

07-Jan 1130 US Tsys $39B 13W bill auction (912796RG6)

07-Jan 1130 US Tsys $36B 26W bill auction (912796RZ4)

07-Jan 1240 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, econ-outlook, Rotary Club of Atl, Q&A.

07-Jan 1500 Dec Treasury STRIPS Holdings

     08-Jan 0600 Dec NFIB Small Business Index (104.8, --)

08-Jan 0830 Nov trade balance (-$55.5B, -$52.9B)

08-Jan 0855 05-Jan Redbook retail sales m/m

08-Jan 1000 Nov JOLTS job openings level (7.079M, --)

08-Jan 1000 Nov JOLTS quits rate (2.3%, --)

08-Jan 1300 US Tsy $38B 3Y note auction (9128285V8)

08-Jan 1500 Nov consumer credit ($25.4B, $20.0B)

     09-Jan 0700 04-Jan MBA Mortgage Applications (-9.8%, --)

09-Jan 0820 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, econ outlook, TN, Q&A.

09-Jan 0900 Chi Fed Pres Evans, Discover Fncl Svcs Co, Il, Q&A.

09-Jan 1000 Jan help-wanted online ratio

09-Jan 1000 Jan Atlanta Fed inflation

09-Jan 1030 04-Jan crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (7M bbl, --)

09-Jan 1100 Dec Kansas City Fed LMCI

09-Jan 1130 Bos Fed Pres Rosengren econ outlook, Boston, Ma

09-Jan 1300 US Tsy $24B 10Y note auction (9128285M8)

09-Jan 1400 December 18-19 FOMC minutes release

     10-Jan 0830 05-Jan jobless claims (220k, 215k)

10-Jan 1000 Nov wholesale inventories (0.8%, --)

10-Jan 1000 Nov wholesale sales (-0.2%, --)

10-Jan 1030 04-Jan natural gas stocks w/w (-20Bcf, --)

10-Jan 1230 StL Fed Pres Bullard, econ outlook/mon-pol, AR, Q&A

10-Jan 1300 US Tsy $16B 30Y bond auction (912810E9)

10-Jan 1300 Chi Fed Pres Evans, Milwaukee Bizz Jrnl Econ Forecast, Wi Q&A

10-Jan 1630 09-Jan Fed weekly securities holdings

     11-Jan 0830 Dec CPI (0.0%, -0.2%)

11-Jan 0830 Dec CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.2%, 0.2%)

11-Jan 1100 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (2.60%, --)

11-Jan 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (2.49%, --)

11-Jan 1200 16/17 grain stocks

11-Jan 1400 Dec Treasury budget balance (-$204.9B, --)

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]