US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: BEA, Census Bureau Gets Back To Work

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Data highlights for the week ahead include January

nonmanufacturing ISM on Tuesday and Non-farm productivity (p) (1.5% est) on

Wednesday.

     The U.S. government re-open will allow for a back-log of data to be

released from the BEA and Census Bureau over the next couple of weeks. 

     The return of Factory new orders for November will be reported Monday;

international trade balance for November (-$57.4B est) on Wednesday.

     Several Fed speakers on tap in the week ahead include Loretta Mester,

Randal Quarles, Jerome Powell, Richard Clarida, and James Bullard. 

     U.S. Treasury auctions 13- and 26W bills on Monday, 3- and 10Y notes on

Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, 30Y bonds on Thursday.

     Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: ISM-NY current conditions; return of Factory new orders for November;

13- and 26W bill auctions. 

     Nomura economists expect the ISM index "to moderate slightly but remain at

a healthy level - from 58.0 in December to 57.0 for January."

     Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will answer

questions at a economic outlook and monetary policy speaking event in Ohio.

- Tuesday: Redbook retail sales m/m; Markit Services Index for January; ISM

Non-manufacturing Index (56.4 est); $38B 3Y note auction.

     Barclays economists expect ISM nonmanufacturing composite to come in at

"57.4 in January, down a touch from December's 58.0 reading but still in a range

consistent with further solid expansion in the service sector."

- Wednesday: Non-farm productivity (p) (1.5% est) and unit labor costs (p) (1.8%

est) for Q4; trade balance for November (-$57.4B est); $27B 10Y note auction.

     Morgan Stanley economists estimate that "productivity grew at a 1.7%Q

annualized rate in the fourth quarter. For unit labor costs, we forecast growth

of 1.6% (Q/Q annualized) after a 0.9% gain in 3Q." 

     MS reminds the BLS's report "will be incomplete due to the delayed 4Q GDP

data."

     Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman Randal Quarles to deliver

a speech at a conference on stress testing; US Federal Reserve Board Chairman

Jerome H. Powell to host town hall meeting in DC, both will answer audience

questions.

- Thursday: Weekly claims; consumer credit for December ($18.0B)

     Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will speak

and answer questions at an academic seminar in Prague; St. Louis Federal Reserve

Bank President James Bullard will answer questions at a economic outlook and

monetary policy speaking event in Minnesota.

- Friday: Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast; 

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

04-Feb 0945 Jan ISM-NY current conditions 65.4    --

04-Feb 1000 Jan ETI

04-Feb 1000 Nov factory new orders (-0.2% est)

04-Feb 1000 Nov factory orders ex transport

04-Feb 1130 US TSY $45B 13W bill auction (912796RP6)

04-Feb 1130 US TSY $39B 26W bill auction (912796SC4)

04-Feb 1930 Clev Fed Pres Mester, MON-POL/ECO OUTLOOK, 50 Club/Cleveland Annl

meet Q&A.

     05-Feb 0855 02-Feb Redbook retail sales m/m (-1.8%, --)

05-Feb 0945 Jan Markit Services Index (final) (54.2, --)

05-Feb 1000 Jan ISM Non-manufacturing Index (58.0, 56.4)

05-Feb 1000 Feb IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (52.3, --)

05-Feb 1300 US TSY $38B 3Y note auction (9128286C9)

     06-Feb 0700 01-Feb MBA Mortgage Applications (-3.0%, --)

06-Feb 0830 Q4 non-farm productivity (p) (2.3%, 1.5%)

06-Feb 0830 Q4 unit labor costs (p) (0.9%, 1.8%)

06-Feb 0830 Nov trade balance (-$57.4B est)

06-Feb 1000 Feb help-wanted online ratio

06-Feb 1030 01-Feb crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (919m Bbl, --)

06-Feb 1300 US TSY $27B 10Y note auction (9128286B1)

06-Feb 1500 Jan Treasury STRIPS Holdings

06-Feb 1805 Fed Brd Gov VC Quarles, stress testing conf, Q/A

06-Feb 1900 Fed Chair Powell, town hall meeting w/educators via webcast from

Board Room of the Board's main building, DC, features audience and participant

Q&A.

     07-Feb 0830 02-Feb jobless claims (253k, --)

07-Feb 1030 01-Feb natural gas stocks w/w

07-Feb 1300 US TSY $19B 30Y bond auction (912810SF6)

07-Feb 1500 Dec consumer credit ($22.1B, $18.0B)

07-Feb 1630 06-Feb Fed weekly securities holdings

07-Feb 1930 StL Fed Pres Bullard, MON-POL/ECO OUTLOOK, St. Cloud St Univ, Mn,

Q&A.

     08-Feb 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (2.39%, --)

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]