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(U1) Uptrend Weakening

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Bullard Kickstarts Reflation Unwind Theme

AUDUSD TECHS

Fresh 2021 Lows

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Data starts to pickup in the week ahead with a backlog
November and December releases by the US Census Department data on Thursday. 
     Tensions may grow as the week proceeds if no border funding resolution made
by Friday's U.S. government shutdown deadline, however. Not a good portent,
weekend headlines said border security negotiations had broken down.
     Various Fed speakers are on tap this week include Fed Chair Powell, KC Fed
President George, Cleveland Fed President Mester, Atlanta Fed President Bostic,
and Philadelphia Fed Chair Harker. 
     U.S. Treasury auctions limited to 13- and 26W bills on Monday and the 4-
and 8-W bills on Thursday.
Salient data highlights (estimates):
- Monday: Slow start to the week with NY Fed expectations survey for February;
13- and 26W bill auctions. 
- Tuesday: Another slow day for data (NFIB Small Business Index, Redbook retail
sales and JOLTS job openings), but Fed Chairman Powell kicks off round of
several Fed speakers on week, KC Fed President George and Cleveland Fed
President Mester later in the evening.
- Wednesday: January CPI (0.1% est); Treasury budget. Fed speakers include
Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Mester and Philadelphia
Fed Chair Harker.
     Energy prices are a headwind for CPI, RBC economists posit. That said,
"firm demand as evidenced by strong chain-store sales and very healthy income
growth (production worker aggregate wages were near 6% y/y in Jan) should help
boost core prices by a relatively robust 0.3%. This leaves the headline at about
0.2% even with the headwind from energy."
     TD Securities economists expect headline CPI "to retreat to 1.5% y/y thanks
to lower gasoline prices. Outside of fuels we still see strength across food and
core services. The latter should underpin a 0.2% m/m print on core CPI,
translating to a 2.1% y/y increase." 
- Thursday: Aside from weekly claims, Final Demand PPI (0.1% est) for January;
Retail Sales (0.0%) for December; business inventories for November (0.2%). 4-
and 8W bill auctions. 
     Morgan Stanley economists "forecast a 0.3% month-over-month gain in
December core retail sales (which we define as retail sales and food services
excluding auto dealers, gas stations and home improvement stores)." 
     MS said a large part of their Retail Sales forecast is "driven by the food
services category (i.e. restaurants), and so the Bloomberg definition of the
control group (which excludes restaurants in addition to the categories above),
is flat according to our model." 
     RBS NatWest economists posits the December retail sales report "may be
stronger than it looks on the surface. Overall sales are unlikely to have shown
much growth in December (NWM forecast: +0.1%), restrained by a sharp decline in
gasoline station receipts (due to lower prices)."
     RBS adds "even our small expected increase would be consistent with a gain
in real PCE of around 4% in Q4 (relative to the Q3 average)."
- Friday: Import/export prices; industrial production (0.1% est) and capacity
utilization (78.7% est); Feb Michigan sentiment index (p) (92.3). Atlanta Fed
President Bostic will field questions at a "Workforce Development" conference in
Alabama.
Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):
11-Feb 1100 Feb NY Fed expectations survey
11-Feb 1130 US TSY $45B 13W bill auction (912796RQ4)
11-Feb 1130 US TSY $39B 26W bill auction (912796QV4)
12-Feb 0600 Jan NFIB Small Business Index (104.4, --)
12-Feb 0855 09-Feb Redbook retail sales m/m (-2.0%, --)
12-Feb 1000 Dec JOLTS job openings level (6.888M, --) 
12-Feb 1000 Dec JOLTS quits rate (2.3%, --)
12-Feb 1245 US Fed Chair Powell, econ dvlp in hi pov rural comm, Q&A
12-Feb 1730 KC Fed Pres George, Charting US Economic Course, KC, Q&A
12-Feb 1830 Clv Fed Pres Mester, eco-outlook/mon-pol, OH, Q&A
     13-Feb 0700 08-Feb MBA Mortgage Applications
13-Feb 0830 Jan CPI (-0.1%, 0.1%)
13-Feb 0830 Jan CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.2%, 0.2%)
13-Feb 0850 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, eco-outlook/mon-pol, Ireland, Q&A 
13-Feb 0850 Cle Fed Pres Mester, eco-outlook/mon-pol, KY, Q&A
13-Feb 1000 Feb Atlanta Fed inflation (2.0%, --)
13-Feb 1030 08-Feb crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (126m bbl, --)
13-Feb 1100 Jan Kansas City Fed LMCI (1.05, --)
13-Feb 1200 Phi Fed Chair Harker, eco-outlook/mon-pol, PA, Q&A
13-Feb 1400 Jan Treasury budget balance
     14-Feb 0830 09-Feb jobless claims
14-Feb 0830 Jan Final Demand PPI (-0.2%, 0.1%)
14-Feb 0830 Jan PPI ex. food and energy (-0.1%, 0.2%)
14-Feb 0830 Jan PPI ex. food, energy, trade (0.0%, --)
14-Feb 0830 Dec retail sales (0.2%, 0.0%)
14-Feb 0830 Dec retail sales ex. motor vehicle (0.2%, -0.1%)
14-Feb 0830 Dec retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (0.5%, --)
14-Feb 1000 Nov business inventories (0.6%, 0.2%)
14-Feb 1030 08-Feb natural gas stocks w/w
14-Feb 1100 Phi Fed Pres Harker "Approaches to Leadership", DE, Q&A
14-Feb 1630 13-Feb Fed weekly securities holdings
     15-Feb 0830 Jan imports price index (-1.0%, -0.1%)
15-Feb 0830 Jan exports price index (-0.6%, --)
15-Feb 0830 Feb Empire Manufacturing Index (3.9, 5.8)
15-Feb 0915 Jan industrial production (0.3%, 0.1%)
15-Feb 0915 Jan capacity utilization (78.7%, 78.7%)
15-Feb 0955 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, "Workforce Development", AL, Q&A
15-Feb 1000 Feb Michigan sentiment index (p) (91.2, 92.3)
15-Feb 1100 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast
15-Feb 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast
15-Feb 1600 Dec net TICS flows
15-Feb 1600 Dec long term TICS flows
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]