US Cr Mkt Wk Ahead: FOMC Mins', Fed Policy Rep Ahead Testimony

CHICAGO (MNI) - Data picks up slowly as U.S. markets return from the extended

holiday weekend, data highlights for the week ahead include Durable Goods,

Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales, all released Thursday.

Event highlights include the release of FOMC minutes from the January 29-30 FOMC

on Wednesday and the Fed policy REPORT to Congress ahead the February 26

semiannual testimony by Chairman Powell (testimony to the House the following

day).

Various Fed speakers are on tap this week include Cleveland Fed President

Mester, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Feb board of

governor VC Clarida and Philadelphia Fed Chair Harker.

U.S. Treasury auctions limited to 13- and 26W bills on Tuesday, 2Y FRN notes on

Wednesday and 30Y TIPS on Friday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Markets closed for presidents day holiday

- Tuesday: NY Fed Business Leaders Index; NAHB home builder index. Cleveland

Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester economic outlook and monetary

policy.

On NAHB home builder index, Nomura economists forecast a "1.0pp increase in the

NAHB

housing market index to 59.0 in February. Lower mortgage rates in January helped

stabilize home builder sentiment, pushing the topline index up 2pp after two

consecutive

monthly declines."

- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications; Redbook retail sales; Dallas Federal

Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan moderated Q&A at the CFA Society of Houston.

Jan 29-30 FOMC minutes release rounds out the session.

After much communication from Fed speakers over the last couple weeks, RBS

NatWest economists aren't expecting "that much new information on the outlook,

although any further discussion regarding the balance sheet unwind will be of

particular interest."

Nomura economists said "it will be interesting to see the distribution of

participants that continue to expect rate hikes this year if risks dissipate and

the base case economic outlook materializes. However, with the Fed effectively

on hold with respect to policy rate increases, market attention should shift to

the balance sheet."

- Thursday: Data releases surge with weekly claims (220k est); Philadelphia Fed

Mfg Index (15.0 est); Durable goods/new orders; Markit Manufacturing and

Services index; existing home sales (4.95M est); leading indicators (0.2% est).

On durable goods orders excluding transportation, Morgan Stanley economists look

for the figure to "rise a strong 0.8% in December on top of a 0.5% gain in

November. For the headline figure, industry data points to a surge in aircraft

orders, which should push up overall orders to a reading of 3.9%."

Barclays economists "forecast overall new orders of advance durable goods to

have jumped 4.6% m/m in December on the heels of November's 0.7% m/m increase.

We expect December's increase to have been driven by a 12.5% m/m jump in orders

in the volatile transportation category, reflecting a December upswing in

aircraft orders at Boeing."

- Friday: Aside from weekly GDP Nowcasts from the St louis and New York Fed, the

Federal Reserve will release the semiannual policy report to Congress at 11:00

am ET ahead of Chairman Powell's testimony on February 26.

Ahead of the Fed chairs testimony, Wells Fargo strategists "expect USD front end

rates to rise about 5bps, as the Chair is likely to sound at least somewhat less

dovish than he did on January 30."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

19-Feb 0830 Feb NY Fed Business Leaders Index (0, --)

19-Feb 0850 Cl Fed Pres Mester, Eco-Forecast UofD Cntr for Eco Edu & Entr, Q&A

19-Feb 1000 Feb NAHB home builder index (58, --)

19-Feb 1130 US TSY $45B 13W bill auction (912796QH5)

19-Feb 1130 US TSY $39B 26W bill auction (912796SE0)

20-Feb 0700 15-Feb MBA Mortgage Applications (-3.7%, --)

20-Feb 0855 16-Feb Redbook retail sales m/m (-1.8%, --)

20-Feb 1000 Q4 e-commerce retail sales

20-Feb 1000 Q3 QCEW employment

20-Feb 1130 US TSY $18B 2Y FRN note auction (9128285Y2)

20-Feb 1310 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, moderated Q&A, CFA Soc of Houston, TX

20-Feb 1400 Jan 29-30 FOMC minutes release

20-Feb 1500 Jan farm prices

21-Feb 0750 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, eco outlook/mon-pol, Atlanta, GA, audience Q&A.

21-Feb 0830 16-Feb jobless claims (239k, 220k)

21-Feb 0830 Feb Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (17.0, 15.0)

21-Feb 0830 Dec durable goods new orders (0.7%, 2.5%)

21-Feb 0830 Dec durable new orders ex transport (-0.4%, 0.3%)

21-Feb 0945 Feb Markit Mfg Index (flash) (54.9, --)

21-Feb 0945 Feb Markit Services Index (flash) (54.2, --)

21-Feb 1000 Jan existing home sales (4.99m, 4.95m)

21-Feb 1000 Jan leading indicators (-0.1%, 0.2%)

21-Feb 1030 15-Feb natural gas stocks w/w

21-Feb 1100 15-Feb crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (3.63m bbl, --)

21-Feb 1300 US TSY $8B 30Y TIPS auction (912810SG4)

21-Feb 1630 20-Feb Fed weekly securities holdings

22-Feb 1100 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast

22-Feb 1100 US Fed policy REPORT to Congress ahead Feb 26 semiannual testimony

22-Feb 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast

22-Feb 1200 US Fed VC Clarida, Fed's "Review of Monetary Policy Strategies,

Tools, and Communications", 2019 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, NY

22-Feb 1330 US Fed VC Clarida, StL Fed Pres Bullard, and Phil Fed Pres Harker

panel on "Future of Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet", InterContinental NY

Barclay, audience Q&A.

22-Feb 1330 US Phil Fed Harker, balance sheet panel discussion, NY, Q&A

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]