US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: Fed Speakers Book-End Midwk FOMC Minutes

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Looks like another relatively quiet week ahead following

the extended Presidents Day holiday weekend, highlight likely Wednesday's

release of the Federal Reserve minutes from the January 30-31 FOMC at 1400ET.

     Following the hawkish no-rate hike January meeting, BNP Paribas economists

said they "expect the minutes to capture the sentiment to its upgrades, and will

be looking for its take on the drivers of the reacceleration in activity."

     BNP said they will be "looking for clues as to whether 'further gradual

increases in the federal funds rate' implies more rate hikes."

     Scotiabank economists ask "why did the FOMC insert the word "further" in

front of "gradual" in the January 31st FOMC statement?"

     Perhaps it's a "sign that the FOMC consensus led by former Chair Yellen was

preparing the way for a possible upward revision to the dot plot that could

raise the median projected fed funds target rate," Scotiabank pondered, adding

the Fed has made deliberate wording changes in the past to convey subtle shifts

in forward policy.

     Noting the January FOMC occurred prior to "strong wage and CPI data and the

passage of a large spending bill," Credit Suisse strategists posit the "minutes

may not reflect the committee's latest views on growth and inflation." 

     CS expects the first hike of 2018 to come at the March 21 FOMC

announcement, with "three subsequent hikes in 2018."

     The January meeting minutes is preceded by Philadelphia Federal Reserve

Bank President Patrick Harker speaking about the economic outlook for the US at

the Edward Jones Dean's Breakfast in St Louis with audience Q&A at 0900ET

Wednesday.

     Late Wednesday night, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel

Kashkari is expected to participate in a moderated Q&A in Minneapolis.

     Thursday includes Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic

speaking at the 2018 Banking Outlook Conference in Atlanta with audience Q&A at

1210ET.

     Next Friday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will

participate in a panel on "A Review of the Objectives for Monetary Policy" in

New York, with audience Q&A at 1330ET.

     San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John William follows at 1540ET

as he speaks on the "Outlook on the Economy and the Implications for Monetary

Policy" in Los Angeles, with audience and media Q&A.

     Meanwhile, bond markets get another slew of upsized debt issuance next

week. Recapping next week's Treasury auctions:

- Feb 20 $55B US Tsys 4Wk, $51B 3M and $45B 6M bill auctions 1130ET

- Feb 20 $28B US Tsys 2Y note auction 1300ET

- Feb 21 $15B US Tsys 2Y Reopen FRN note auction 1130ET

- Feb 21 $35B US Tsys 5Y note auction 1300ET

- Feb 22 $29B US Tsys 7Y note auction 1300ET

     As expected, auction sizes increased by $2B for 2Y and $1B each for the 5-

and 7Y note auctions.

     The Federal Reserve also continues to gradually reduce its $4.5 trillion

balance sheet ($4.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries and Agency MBS.) Monthly Fed

reinvestment caps consistent with the FOMC Sept. 20 decision and June 2017

addendum:

MONTHLY CAPS ON SOMA SECURITIES REDUCTIONS

US TREASURIES.../AGENCY MBS/MONTH CAP 

- Oct-Dec 2017.. $6 billion./$4 billion 

- Jan-Mar 2018.. $12 billion/$8 billion 

- Apr-Jun 2018 $18 billion../$12 billion 

- Jul-Sep 2018 $24 billion../$16 billion 

- From Oct 2018** $30 billion $20 billion

Calendar of next week's market events (data, Fed speakers): 

- Feb 19 US Presidents Day Holiday market close

- Feb 20 Feb Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Index (19.5, --) 0830ET

- Feb 20 $55B US Tsys 4Wk, $51B 3M and $45B 6M bill auctions 1130ET

- Feb 20 $28B US Tsys 2Y note auction 1300ET

- Feb 21 17-Feb Redbook retail sales m/m (-1.1%, --) 0855ET

- Feb 21 Philly Fed Pres Harker speaks at Edward Jones Dean's Breakfast:

Economic Outlook, St Louis, Q&A. 0900ET

- Feb 21 Markit Mfg Index (flash) (55.5, --) 0945ET

- Feb 21 Markit Services Index (flash) (53.3, --) 0945ET

- Feb 21 Jan existing home sales (5.57m, 5.65m) 1000ET

- Feb 21 $15B US Tsys 2Y Reopen FRN note auction 1130ET 

- Feb 21 $35B US Tsys 5Y note auction 1300ET

- Feb 21 Fed Reserve minutes from January 30-31 FOMC, 1400ET

- Feb 21 Minn Fed President Kashkari participation/moderated Q&A in Minneapolis,

Q&A. 2015ET

- Feb 22 16-Feb MBA Mortgage Applications (-4.1%,--) 0700ET

- Feb 22 17-Feb jobless claims (230k, 228k) 0830ET

- Feb 22 18-Feb Bloomberg comfort index (57.0, --) 0945ET

- Feb 22 Jan leading indicators (0.6%, 0.6%) 1000ET

- Feb 22 16-Feb natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET

- Feb 22 16-Feb crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (1.84m bbl, --) 1100ET

- Feb 22 Feb Kansas City Fed Mfg Index (16, --) 1100ET

- Feb 22 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, Banking Outlook Conf in Atlanta, Q&A 1210ET

- Feb 22 $29B US Tsys 7Y note auction 1300ET

- Feb 22 21-Feb Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Feb 23 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET

- Feb 23 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET

- Feb Clev Fed Pres Mester participation Review of Objectives for Monetary

Policy in New York, Q&A, 1330ET

- Feb 23 SF Fed Pres Williams on "Outlook on Economy and Implications for

Monetary Policy" in Los Angeles, Q&A, 1540ET

- Feb 23 Feb Treasury Allotments (p) 1500ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]