US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: Mar NFP & AHE Fri W/Fed Chair on Outlook

     Highlights for the week ahead include ISM manufacturing index on Monday

(59.5 est vs. 60.8 prior) and Friday's March employment data. 

March jobs is expected to rise by 190,000 after February's blow-out 313,000 read

(outshining 0.1% average hourly earnings that everyone had been focused on).

Friday's March AHE is estimated at 0.2%.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to discuss the U.S. economic

outlook in Chicago at 1330ET.

     On ISM, Credit Suisse economists expect the "index to fall slightly in

March to 59.0 from 60.8. Several regional manufacturing surveys have eased a bit

from elevated levels, but the overall tone continues to point to robust

underlying growth."

CS noted that "several regional manufacturing surveys have declined in March

from extreme levels, but the overall tone continues to point to robust

underlying growth."

     CS estimate of the March jobs number is better than MNI's polling at

225,000, "still well above a sustainable level for the labor market, and further

slowdown is likely in the months ahead," while they "unemployment rate to tick

down to 4.0%, and average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% MoM (and 2.7% YoY)."

     Deutsche Bank economists estimate the March headline and private jobs

numbers at a more moderate 200,000.

     DB noted "March has been a tricky month for employment forecasters as the

median consensus estimate has overestimated the initial March nonfarm payrolls

print in four of the last five years by an average of 62k."

DB's estimates AHE at 0.2%. "Should AHEs come in as we anticipate, the

year-over-year rate will rise by about 5 basis points (bps) to 2.66%, still

about 10bps below January's recent high point of 2.77%."

     On Fed chairman Powell, DB expects him to "reiterate the upbeat outlook he

presented at the March 21 FOMC meeting." DB will be alert for any mention of

current data as well as "wage growth and financial conditions in the Q&A."

On the low end of of the scale, RBS NatWest economists estimate the March jobs

number to come out at 130,000. "Still, assuming no revisions, an increase of

130,000 this month would leave the three-month moving average at a strong

227,000."

RBS estimate AHE to climb 0.3%, "bolstered by the calendar, as the 15th of the

month falls within the payroll survey week, which means that increases in

bi-monthly pay are likely to have been captured." RBS estimates unemployment

rate to hold at 4.1%.

     Aside from Fed chair Powell's appearance, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank

President Neel Kashkari speaks at events with audience Q&A on Monday and

Tuesday.

     St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard and Cleveland

Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will address audience Q&A at

separate events Wednesday while Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael

Bostic speaks at an event in Sarasota, Florida Thursday.

Monthly Fed reinvestment caps consistent with the FOMC Sept. 20 decision and

June 2017 addendum:

MONTHLY CAPS ON SOMA SECURITIES REDUCTIONS

US TREASURIES.../AGENCY MBS/MONTH CAP 

- Oct-Dec 2017.. $6 billion./$4 billion 

- Jan-Mar 2018.. $12 billion/$8 billion 

- Apr-Jun 2018 $18 billion../$12 billion 

- Jul-Sep 2018 $24 billion../$16 billion 

- From Oct 2018** $30 billion $20 billion

Calendar of next week's market events (data, Fed speakers): 

- Apr 02 Mar Markit Mfg Index (final) (55.7, --) 0945ET

- Apr 02 Mar ISM Manufacturing Index (60.8, 59.5) 1000ET

- Apr 02 Feb construction spending (0.0%, 0.5%) 1000ET

- Apr 02 Mn Fed Pres Kashkari, Student Town Hall, Duluth, Mn, Q&A. 1800ET

- Apr 03 Mar NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR (12.8m, 12.9m)

- Apr 03 31-Mar Redbook retail sales m/m (0.1%, --) 0855ET

- Apr 03 Mn Fed Pres Kashkari moderated Q&A, Reg Eco Ind Forum, Mn, Q&A. 0930ET

- Apr 03 Mar ISM-NY current conditions (54.5, --) 0945ET

- Apr 03 Apr IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (55.6 --) 1000ET

- Apr 03 $55B Tsy 4Wk bill auction 1130ET

     - Apr 04 30-Mar MBA Mortgage Applications (4.8%, --) 0700ET

- Apr 04 Mar ADP private payrolls (235k , --) 0815ET

- Apr 04 Mar Markit Services Index (final) (54.1, --) 0945ET

- Apr 04 StL Fed Pres Bullard, Ark Bnk Assn & Ark Bnk Dpt's Day w/Comm Little

Rock, Q&A. 0945ET

- Apr 04 Mar ISM Non-manufacturing Index (59.5, 59.0) 1000ET

- Apr 04 Feb factory new orders (-1.4%, 1.6%) 1000ET

- Apr 04 Feb factory orders ex transport (0.4%, 1.3%) 1000ET

- Apr 04 Apr help-wanted online ratio (1.25, --) 1000ET

- Apr 04 30-Mar crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (1.6m bbl, --) 1030ET

- Apr 04 Clev Fed Pres Mester keynote speech, Cntl State Univ Leaders, Exec,

Entrepreneurs, and Directors Program Wilberforce, Ohio, Q&A. 1100ET

     - Apr 05 Mar challenger layoff plans (-4.3%, --) 0730ET

- Apr 05 31-Mar jobless claims (215k, 224k) 0830ET

- Apr 05 Feb trade balance (-$56.6B, -$56.8B) 0830ET

- Apr 05 01-Apr Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET

- Apr 05 30-Mar natural gas stocks w/w (-63Bcf, --) 1030ET

- Apr 05 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, Fin. Literacy Day, Sarasota, Fl, Q&A. 1300ET

- Apr 05 Mar Treasury STRIPS Holdings 1500ET

- Apr 05 04-Apr Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

     - Apr 06 Mar nonfarm payrolls (313k, 190k) 0830ET

- Apr 06 Mar private payrolls (287k, 198k) 0830ET

- Apr 06 Mar unemployment rate (4.1%, 4.0%) 0830ET

- Apr 06 Mar average hourly earnings (0.1%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Apr 06 Mar average workweek, all workers (34.5hrs, 34.5hrs) 0830ET

- Apr 06 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET

- Apr 06 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET

- Apr 06 Fed Chairman Powell economic outlook, Chicago, 1330ET

- Apr 06 Feb consumer credit ($13.9B, $16.7B) 1500ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]