US Daily Oil Summary: Crude Production Revised Up

US crude oil production is seen at 13.19m b/ in 2024 and 13.65m b/d in 2025, according to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. This is an upward revision of 0.09m b/d and 0.16m b/d respectively compared to the February report.

• Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery in Texas has shut its 85k b/d Vacuum Pipestill 2 crude unit, sources told Bloomberg.
• All three US Gulf Coast gasoline grades pushed to nearly six-month highs March 11 as they shifted to summer specifications according to Platts. Platts assessed differentials for USGC CBOB up 8.25 cents, finished 87 grade up 14 cents and RBOB up 22.75 cents/gal on March 11.
• US gasoline futures have risen more than a fifth so far this year with focus on US retail prices ahead of the US presidential election. Refining margins above seasonal norms are a sign of tightness as the US summer driving season approaches.
• US DATA: CPI Unrounded - Feb'24. Unrounded % M/M (SA): Headline 0.442%; Core: 0.358% (from 0.392%). Unrounded % Y/Y (NSA): Headline 3.153%; Core: 3.752% (from 3.862%)
• The below four non-rounded preliminary core PCE estimates average 0.25% M/M in Feb with some slight upside from rounded estimates, after 0.42% in Jan.
• USD: The Bloomberg dollar spot index is up 0.13% on the day. The USD was supported by the inflation data on the day which may slightly drag out the Fed rate cuts. U.S. rate futures have priced in a 67% chance of a rate cut at the June policy meeting, according to the LSEG's rate probability app. That was at around 71% on Monday, according to Reuters.