US Daily Oil Summary: Forecast for High Thanksgiving Travel Demand

AAA forecasts 55.4mn people will be travelling, including more than 49mn Americans driving, during 22-26 November for the Thanksgiving holiday, cited by CNN.

• This would track the third-busiest Thanksgiving travel period in more than two decades and up by 2% from 2022 levels according to the AAA.
• GasBuddy models US gasoline demand for the week (Sun-Sat) ending 11/11 at 8.42 mn bpd, a 4.0% drop from the week prior. The national average gasoline price has declined for its 8th straight week, falling to $3.33/gal.
• US imports of European gasoline fell in the week to Nov. 9, according to Bloomberg. The US imported around 173k b/d of European gasoline, down from 253k b/d the previous week.
• USD: Slightly lower US yields on Monday tilts the USD index into moderate negative territory, although G10 ranges have remained contained ahead of tomorrow’s key US CPI data.
• Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in October, a third month at 0.3 after two 0.16 readings at the start of summer. Our survey of analysts to 2.d.p suggests some mild upside skew.
• Further rate hikes are still seen with a high bar despite expectations rising post-Powell (to a cumulative 7bp of tightening over the next two meetings) before 80bp of cuts through 2024.
• On Saturday, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) unveiled a plan to avert a government shutdown which calls for a ‘clean’ extension of government funding but structured within an unusual ‘laddered’ proposal which sets deadlines for FY24 spending bills into two buckets.
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