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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
Analyst expectations for August core CPI were too low (0.20% M/M MNI median vs 0.28% actual), in turn driven by underestimating housing inflation. See table below.
- The analyst median expectation of core services was 0.30% M/M, but this registered 0.41% on the back of OER (0.50%, 0.20pp above expected) and tenants' rents (0.37%, 0.07pp above expected).
- Analysts also underestimated the rebounds in lodging and airfares, though auto insurance prices missed expectations to the downside.
- However, analysts did not anticipate such a strong degree of core goods deflation, at -0.17% (vs -0.11% expected), even with used cars (-1.0% M/M) coming in roughly as expected.
- Looking at headline CPI: the key headline categories of food (0.12% M/M, 0.1pp below expectations) and energy (-0.8% M/M, 0.2pp below expectations) came in below-expected (gasoline was roughly in line at -0.6% M/M). But the overall headline CPI expectation of 0.17% M/M was exceeded by 0.02pp nonetheless, due to the core categories coming in on the high side.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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