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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- CPI goods provided the main downside surprise, contrary to stronger goods inflation in yesterday’s PPI release although that can be seen as signs of further erosion of pricing power.
- At -0.3% M/M, it registered the thirteenth month of deflation out of the last fourteen.
- Used cars were the main downside surprise with a 2.3% decline.
- There was also some continued weakness in core goods ex used cars, but at -0.09% M/M after 0.04% in June it’s not wildly different to the 2024ytd average of exactly 0.00%. Apparel (-0.45%) played a sizeable role here, continuing to reverse the early-year strength.
- Services meanwhile saw signs of strength, with the most notable being the 0.49% M/M increase in primary rents (technically the strongest monthly increase since May 2023). Unless it turns out there are sampling issues, this strongly goes against June’s surprise moderation to 0.26% and indicates the anticipated next phase of moderation won’t be as smooth as first thought.
- That said, the more heavily weighted OER component saw a less notable acceleration from 0.28% to 0.36% (analyst average 0.31, range 0.27-0.38), remaining under the 0.4-0.5% monthly prints seen since mid-2023.
- To emphasize the continued rent progress that the FOMC needs to see, OER and primary rents saw a weighted average of 0.27% M/M pre-pandemic. We have only had one month meet that rate over recent years (June) and it has since re-accelerated to 0.39% M/M.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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