US Data Forecast Focus: June Payrolls Seen +170,000, 3.6% Rate

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 170,000 in June

after a much weaker-than-expected 75,000 rise in May. The unemployment rate is

expected to stay at the 50-year low of 3.6%. Hourly earnings are forecast to

rise 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.4 hours in

April.

     Analysts sharply overestimated payrolls in May, even as the ADP report gave

an early peek at how soft the headline could be. Underestimates in each of the

last six June reports suggest an upward surprise is possible this week.

Forecast:                     Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19

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Median                           167     183     170     190     185     170

Range High                       190     220     243     250     208     205

Range Low                        135     141     145     165     145     125

Actual original result           304      20     196     263      75    #N/A

Median-Actual                   -137     163     -26     -73     110    #N/A

Historical comparison:        Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17  Jun-18

Median                           160     215     220     178     170     195

Range High                       175     250     250     210     210     212

Range Low                        125     199     190     130     138     180

Actual original result           195     288     223     287     222     213

Median-Actual                    -35     -73      -3    -109     -52     -18

                              Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19

ISM Mfg Employment              55.5    52.3    57.5    52.4    53.7    54.5

ISM Nonmfg Employment           57.8    55.2    55.9    53.7    58.1    55.0

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful          46.7    45.7    42.5    46.5    45.3    44.0

Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap       34.1    34.0    28.7    33.2    33.5    27.6

Net change from survey week:

Initial claims (Chg thsnd)        -3      -4       3     -23      19       2

4-week mvg avg                    -1       7      -9     -19      19      -2

Continuing claims                  8      66     -18    -101       8      32

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)        UNCH    -1.2    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)       264     220     158     255      41     102

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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