US Data Forecast Focus: March PPI Seen +0.1%, Core +0.2%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.1% in March after

a 0.2% gain in February. Energy prices are expected to exert a small

contribution after a dip in February, while food prices are expected to drag

again after 0.4% decline. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to

rise 0.2% after an as-expected 0.2% increase in the previous month.

     Analysts sharply slightly underestimated final demand PPI in February,

while correctly estimating core PPI. The misses in the last ten March suggest a

slight risk of an overestimate, which has occurred in the most recent two years.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

Overall PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.1     0.3     0.2     0.4     0.1     0.1

Range High                           0.3     0.5     0.3     0.6     0.2     0.2

Range Low                            0.0     0.2     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.0

Actual result                        0.4     0.4    -0.1     0.4     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.3    -0.1     0.3     0.0    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison             Mar-12  Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17

Median                               0.3    -0.3     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.0

Range High                           0.7     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.5     0.1

Range Low                           -0.1    -0.1    -0.2     0.1    -0.2    -0.2

Actual result                        0.0    -0.6     0.5     0.2    -0.1    -0.1

Median-Actual                        0.3     0.3    -0.4     0.0     0.4     0.1

                                  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

Core PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.2     0.2     0.5     0.2     0.2

Range Low                            0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result                        0.4     0.3    -0.1     0.4     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.2    -0.1     0.3    -0.2     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Mar-12  Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.2     0.2     0.4     0.2     0.2

Range Low                            0.1     0.1    -0.2     0.0     0.0     0.0

Actual result                        0.3     0.2     0.6     0.2    -0.1     0.0

Median-Actual                       -0.1     0.0    -0.4    -0.1     0.2     0.2

NOTE: From Jan. 2014

forward, forecast data are

for Final Demand PPI and

Core

                                          Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index

(% chg)                                      4.2     0.8    -6.2     5.7    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   65.5    69.0    72.7    74.2    78.1

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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