US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg forecasts. The comment section

presents the key elements behind the median forecasts.

March Retail Sales (percent change)

 Wednesday, April 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual               

                  Median                             Mar20  Feb20  Jan20     

Retail Sales       -8.0%                                --  -0.5%  +0.6%    

Retail ex mv       -5.0%                                --  -0.4%  +0.6%    

Retail ex mv+gas   -5.2%                                --  -0.2%  +0.7%     

     Comments: U.S. retail sales are set to drop -8.0% in what could be the

largest m/m decline on record. Sales hit rock bottom when they declined -4.3% in

November 2008 during the global financial crisis. Gas station spending likely

fell sharply in March after gasoline prices plummeted, and rising vehicle prices

should put pressure on March auto sales. Excluding motor vehicle and gas station

sales, retail sales should fall -5.2% after a -0.2% decline in February.

Spending at restaurants and businesses in leisure and hospitality likely fell

markedly in March as public health officials enforced social distancing

guidelines and non-essential businesses were forced to close to curb the spread

of the coronavirus.

Empire Manufacturing Index (index)

 Wednesday, April 15 at 8:30 am ET                          Actual        

                     Median                           Apr20  Mar20  Feb20      

Index                 -35.0                              --  -21.5   12.9       

     Comments: The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to drop to -35.0,

which would be the lowest level ever recorded on the index, down from March's

-21.5. The last lowest reading was in February 2009 when the index reached

-34.3.

Industrial Production (percent change)

 Wednesday, April 15 at 9:15 am ET                          Actual        

                          Median:                     Mar20  Feb20  Jan20    

Industrial Production      -4.0%                         --  -0.6%  -0.3%   

Capacity Utilization       74.0%                         --  77.0%  76.8%  

Comments: Industrial production for March is expected to fall -4.0% after

declining for three straight months, while capacity utilization is expected to

drop to 74.0%.

Business Inventories (percent change)

 Wednesday, April 15 at 10:00 am ET                         Actual

                 Median:                              Feb20  Jan20  Dec19     

Inventories       -0.4%                                  --  -0.1%  +0.1%   

Comments: Business inventories for February are expected to decrease by -0.4%

after January's -0.1%.

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, April 16 at 8:30 am EST                        

                                                            Actual

                   Median                             Apr11  Apr04  Mar28       

Claims             5.625m                                -- 6.606m 6.867m      

Comments: U.S. initial unemployment claims filed through April 11 are expected

to climb to 5.625 million Thursday, slowing from last week's 6.6 million level

but still shattering records dating back to 1967. The Department of Labor said

in its latest weekly unemployment insurance report that the coronavirus was

beginning to have a "wider impact" and that states reported seeing an increasing

number of job losses in retail and wholesale trade and construction. Claims

should remain elevated in the coming weeks as states work through a backlog of

applications and non-essential businesses remain closed.

Housing Starts & Building Permits (millions)                   

 Thursday, April 16 at 8:30 am ET                           Actual

                         Median                      Mar20   Feb20   Jan20      

Starts                   1.300m                         --  1.599m  1.567m  

Permits                  1.292m                         --  1.452m  1.551m   

     Comments: March housing starts and building permits are expected to fall to

1.300m and 1.300m, respectively.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (index)

 Thursday, April 16 at 8:30 am ET                           Actual        

               Median                                 Apr20  Mar20  Feb20    

Index           -30.0                                    --  -12.7   36.7      

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to fall

sharply to -30.0 in April, reaching its lowest level since March 2009, during

the global financial crisis.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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