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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.      
Producer Price Index for August (percent change)                         
 Wednesday, September 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                 Actual:         
                 Median        Range                 Aug17  Jul17  Jun17 
 Final Demand     +0.3%    +0.1% to +0.4%               --  -0.1%  +0.1% 
 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%     Flat to +0.2%               --  -0.1%  +0.1% 
     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in August after 
a surprise decline in July. Energy prices are forecast to rebound after  
a 0.3% decline in the previous month, with further gains in future       
months due to Hurricane Harvey. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is 
forecast to rise 0.2% after a below-expectation 0.1% decline in the      
previous month.                                                          
Treasury Statement for August ($ billions)                               
 Wednesday, September 13 at 2:00 p.m. ET                  Actual:        
           Median            Range               Aug17    Jul17    Aug16 
 Balance  -$119.0b       -$125.0b to -$75.0b       --  -$42.9b  -$107.1b
     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $119.0 billion      
budget deficit in August, compared with a $107.1 billion deficit in      
August 2016. The size of deficits should be higher than the previous     
year as hurricane aid is paid out.                                       
Consumer Price Index for August (percent change)                         
 Thursday, September 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:         
              Median         Range                   Aug17  Jul17  Jun17 
 CPI           +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.4%                --  +0.1%   Flat 
 CPI Core      +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.2%                --  +0.1%  +0.1% 
     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in August following a    
0.1% rise in July. Analysts expect energy prices to rebound, as gasoline 
prices ticked higher and will continue to increase in the aftermath of   
the hurricanes. The core CPI is forecast to post a fifth straight 0.1%   
increase in July, which should pull down the year/year rate.             
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 9 week                               
 Thursday, September 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                  Median         Range               Sep09  Sep02  Aug26 
 Weekly Claims      308k      278k to 355k              --   298k   236k 
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise   
by 10,000 to 308,000 in the September 9 holiday week after a 62,000 surge 
in the previous week, as initial filings in hurricane-impact regions     
will continue to pile up for weeks to come. Because seasonal factors     
expect a decline this week, the anticipated surge in unadjusted claims   
will substantially lift the headline number. The four-week moving        
average would rise by 19,000 in the coming week as the 232,000 level in  
the August 12 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI        
forecast is correct and there are no revisions. Given the large initial  
claims gain in the September 2 week, continuing claims will see a        
substantial increase in this week's data as well.                        
Empire State Index for September (diffusion index)                       
 Friday, September 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:         
                 Median        Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17 
 Empire Index     19.0      10.5 to 20.0                --   25.2    9.8 
     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall back to a      
still-strong reading of 19.0 in September after surging to 25.2 in       
Retail and Food Sales for August (percent change)                        
 Friday, September 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:         
               Median       Range                    Aug17  Jul17  Jun17 
 Retail Sales   +0.1%    -0.3% to +0.7%                 --  +0.6%  +0.3% 
 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.5%    +0.3% to +0.9%                 --  +0.5%  +0.1% 
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% in August after a  
surprise 0.6% increase in July, as auto sales were soft in part due to   
the hurricane-affected areas. The impact of Hurricane Harvey at the end  
of the month should be seen in several retail categories, but the real   
impact will likely be seen with September data. AAA reported that        
gasoline prices rose in mid-August from one month earlier after declines 
in recent months, which should offer some support to the ex-motor        
vehicles number, which is seen rising 0.5%.                              
Industrial Production for August (percent change)                        
 Friday, September 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Aug17  Jul17  Jun17 
 Ind Prod      +0.1%     -1.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.2%  +0.4% 
 Cap Util      76.8%     75.6% to 77.0%                 --  76.7%  76.7% 
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1% in August  
after a 0.2% gain in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by 36,000 
in August, while auto production jobs rose by 14,000 and the factory     
workweek declined to 40.7 hours from 40.9 hours in July. The ISM         
production index rose to 61.0 in August from 60.6 in the previous month. 
Utilities production is expected to softer in the month after a 1.6%     
July gain, as cooler weather reduced electricity use, while mining       
production is forecast to weaken after rising in the previous four       
months. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.8% from 76.7% in  
Business Inventories for July (percent change)                           
 Friday, September 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:       
              Median           Range                 Jul17  Jun17  May17 
 Inventories   +0.2%      +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.5%  +0.3% 
     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.2% in July,   
in line with an MNI calculation. Factory inventories were already   
reported as up 0.2% in the month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.6%  
and the advance report pointed to a 0.2% decline for retail inventories. 
Taken together, an MNI calculation looks for a 0.2% increase for         
business inventories. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.3% and   
wholesale sales fell 0.1%, while retail trade sales rose 0.6% in the     
advance retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.3% gain in 
business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales       
University of Michigan Survey for September (preliminary)                
 Friday, September 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                Median        Range                 Sep17p  Aug17  Jul17 
 Consumer Sent    96.0     92.7 to 98.5                 --   96.8   93.4 
     Comments: The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to 
fall to 96.0 in early September from 96.8 in August, with the impact of  
Hurricane Harvey seen in the data.                                       
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email:
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]

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