US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.    

Housing Starts for August (annual rate, million)                        

 Tuesday, September 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

           Median           Range                   Aug17  Jul17  Jun17 

 Starts    1.170m      1.132m to 1.225m                 -- 1.155m 1.213m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to rise to a 1.170 million annual rate in August after a       

decline in July, with Hurricane Harvey likely trimming some building    

from the South region. The real hurricane impact will be seen in next   

month's data, when Harvey and Irma should both subtract from new home   

building. In addition, soft building permits in July may restrict an    

August bounceback. Total starts were down 5.4% year/year before seasonal

adjustment in July, while permits were up 2.6%.                         

Existing-home Sales for August (annual rate)                            

 Wednesday, September 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Home Resales     5.47m      5.40m to 5.50m             --  5.44m  5.51m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to partially 

rebound to a 5.47 million annual rate in August after falling by 1.3% in

July. Sales were unchanged from a year earlier before seasonal          

adjustment. Pending home sales fell 0.8% in July, a downside risk for   

the existing home sales data in August. Supply fell 1.0% in July and was

down 9.0% from a year earlier, an indication of that supply shortage    

continues.                                                              

Weekly Jobless Claims for September 16 week                             

 Thursday, September 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

                  Median         Range               Sep16  Sep09  Sep02

 Weekly Claims      303k     300k to 310k               --   284k   298k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound by 19,000 to 303,000 in the September 16 employment survey week 

after a 14,000 decline in the previous week. Initial and continuing     

filings in hurricane-impact regions will continue to pile up for weeks  

to come, including any back-logged claims in areas where filing could   

not occur in previous weeks. Claims were at a level of 232,000 in the   

August 12 employment survey week, so the comparison is unfavorable even 

when accounting for special factors. Seasonal factors do expect an      

unadjusted increase this week, though not likely as much as will        

actually occur. The four-week moving average would rise by 17,000 in the

coming week as the 235,000 level in the August 19 week drops out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no      

revisions.                                                              

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for September (diffusion index)      

 Thursday, September 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

             Median         Range                    Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Phila Fed     18.9      17.0 to 20.0                   --   18.9   19.5

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to hold steady at 

a reading of 18.9 in September following the declines in each of the    

previous three months.                                                  

Leading Indicators for August (percent change)                          

 Thursday, September 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Leading Index    +0.2%      +0.1% to +0.5%             --  +0.3%  +0.6%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.2% in August. Positive contributions are expected from stronger       

jobless claims, higher stock prices and consumer expectations, and a    

longer factory workweek.                                                

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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