US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Nov 13/15:06 EST Nov 13

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

Producer Price Index for October (percent change)                       

 Tuesday, November 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Final Demand     +0.1%     Flat to +0.3%               --  +0.4%  +0.2%

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%               --  +0.4%  +0.1%

     Comments:  Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.1% in October    

after a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Energy prices are expected 

to decline after solid gains in the previous two months, while food     

prices are expected to be roughly flat. Excluding food and energy       

prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after an above-expectation 0.4%    

increase in the previous month that was led by a 0.8% jump in trade     

services prices.                                                        

Retail and Food Sales for October (percent change)                      

 Wednesday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Retail Sales    Flat     -0.3% to +0.4%                --  +1.6%  -0.1%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.2%     -0.1% to +0.4%                --  +1.0%  +0.5%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to hold steady in October after

a sharp rebound in September. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle

sales slowed in October after a surge in September, while AAA reported  

that gasoline prices fell back in mid-October from one month earlier.   

However, building material sales should remain strong as rebuilding from

the storms continued. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% excluding  

motor vehicles after September's 1.0% gain.                             

Consumer Price Index for October (percent change)                       

 Wednesday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 CPI           +0.1%      Flat to +0.2%                 --  +0.5%  +0.4%

 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise only 0.1% in October         

following a 0.5% energy-related rise in September. Analysts expect      

energy prices to decline after September's 6.1% surge. The core CPI is  

forecast to rise 0.2% following an on-trend 0.1% increase in September. 

Empire State Index for November (diffusion index)                       

 Wednesday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Empire Index      26.0      20.0 to 26.6               --   30.2   24.4

      Comments: The Empire State index is expected to slow to a         

reading of 26.0 in November from 30.2 in October.                       

Business Inventories for September (percent change)                     

 Wednesday, November 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Inventories   +0.1%       Flat to +0.4%                --  +0.7%  +0.3%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.1% in        

September. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.7% in the  

month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.3% and the advance report     

pointed to a 1.0% decline for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI

calculation looks for a flat reading for business inventories, so the   

median forecast implies analysts expect retail inventories to be revised

higher. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.8% and wholesale sales

surged by 1.3%, while retail trade sales jumped 1.7% in the advance     

retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 1.2% increase in    

business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales      

number.                                                                 

Weekly Jobless Claims for November 11 week                              

 Thursday, November 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

                  Median         Range               Nov11  Nov04  Oct28

 Weekly Claims      235k     225k to 249k               --   239k   229k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 4,000 to 235,000 in the November 11 week after a 10,000 increase in  

the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by 3,000 in  

the coming week as the 223,000 level in the October 14 week drops out of

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no  

revisions.                                                              

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for November (diffusion index)       

 Thursday, November 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

             Median         Range                    Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Phila Fed     25.0       20.0 to 25.7                  --   27.9   23.8

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to decline to a   

reading of 25.0 in November following a further gain in October to 27.9.

Industrial Production for October (percent change)                      

 Thursday, November 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Ind Prod      +0.5%      +0.3% to +1.0%                --  +0.3%  -0.7%

 Cap Util      76.3%      76.2% to 76.9%                --  76.0%  75.8%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% in October

after a 0.3% rebound in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by    

24,000 in October, while auto production jobs rose by 3,000 and the     

factory workweek was rose to 41.0 hours from 40.8 hours in September.   

The ISM production index fell to 61.0 in the current month from 62.2 in 

the previous month, but remained strong. Utilities production is        

expected to rise modestly in the month after a 1.5% September rebound,  

while mining production is forecast to slip after posting a 0.4% gain.  

Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.3% from 76.0% in         

September.                                                              

Housing Starts for October (annual rate, million)                       

 Friday, November 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Starts    1.190m        1.130m to 1.220m               -- 1.127m 1.183m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to accelerate to a 1.176 million annual rate in October after a

further decline in September. The NAHB index rebounded in October, a    

positive for the housing starts data.                                   

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com