US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.      

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for January                                 

 Monday, February 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 ISM NMI      56.7       55.8 to 57.0                   --   56.0   57.3

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rebound    

modestly to a reading of 56.7 in January after a further decline to 56.0

in December after annual revisions. The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing   

index fell to 19.5, while the flash Markit Services index fell modestly 

to 53.3.                                                                

Trade in Goods and Services for December (deficit, billion $)           

 Tuesday, February 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Dec17   Nov17   Oct17

 Trade Gap    -$51.8b    -$52.4b to -$49.5b           -- -$50.5b -$48.9b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen further 

to $51.8 billion in December from a $50.5 billion gap in November. The  

advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened to $71.6 billion,

with exports up 2.7% and imports up 2.5%.                               

Consumer Credit for December (dollar change, billions)                  

 Wednesday, February 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Dec17   Nov17   Oct17

 Cons Cred    +$20.5b    +$17.9b to +$30.0b           -- +$28.0b +$20.5b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $20.5 billion in  

December after a $28.0 billion jump in November. Retail sales rose by   

0.4%, both including and excluding motor vehicles, smaller gains than   

have been seen in recent months.                                        

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 3 week                               

 Thursday, February 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Feb03  Jan27  Jan20

 Weekly Claims   234k       234k to 234k                --   230k   231k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound by 4,000 to 234,000 in the February 3 week after a 1,000 decline

in the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 6,750  

in the coming week, as the recent-peak 261,000 level in the January 6   

week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 

and there are no revisions.                                             

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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