US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                               

Weekly Jobless Claims for March 31 week                                 

 Thursday, April 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Mar31  Mar24  Mar17

 Weekly Claims   225k        220k to 225k               --   215k   227k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound by 10,000 to 225,000 in the March 31 week after a 12,000        

decrease in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment in the early spring  

is difficult due to the timing of holidays. The four-week moving average

would fall by 1,250 in the coming week, as the 230,000 level in the     

March 3 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is 

correct and there are no revisions.                                     

Trade in Goods and Services for February (deficit, billion $)           

 Thursday, April 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:          

              Median        Range                  Feb18   Jan18   Dec17

 Trade Gap    -$56.7   -$57.6 to -$56.4               -- -$56.6b -$53.9b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen only    

slightly to $56.7 billion in February from a $56.6 billion gap in       

January. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened     

modestly to $75.4 billion, with exports up 2.2% and imports up 1.4%.    

Nonfarm Payrolls for March (change in thousands)                        

 Friday, April 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Payrolls      +195k      +130k to +250k                --  +313k  +239k

 Private Job   +200k      +125k to +225k                --  +287k  +238k

 Jobless Rate  4.0%        4.0% to 4.1%                 --   4.1%   4.1%

 Hrly Earnings +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.1%  +0.3%

 Avg Wkly Hrs  34.5        34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 195,000 in March

after a much stronger-than-expected 313,000 jump in February. The       

unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0% after holding steady at    

4.1% in recent months. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3%     

after a 0.1% gain, while the average workweek is expected to stay at    

34.5 hours.                                                             

Consumer Credit for February (dollar change, billions)                  

 Friday, April 6 at 3:00 p.m. ET                         Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Feb18   Jan18   Dec17

 Cons Cred    +$18.0   +$15.0 to +$18.4               -- +$13.9b +$19.2b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $18.0 billion in  

February after a $13.9 billion increase in January. Retail sales fell by

0.1%, but were up 0.2% excluding motor vehicles.                        

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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