US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Apr 13/17:06 EST Apr 13

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                      

Retail and Food Sales for March (percent change)                        

 Monday, April 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Retail Sales   +0.3%     +0.3% to +0.4%                --  -0.1%  -0.1%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.1%      Flat to +0.4%                --  +0.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3% in March after a  

after weak readings in the previous two months. Analysts expect the tax 

cuts enacted earlier in the year will start to filter into spending.    

Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales rose solidly in March, 

particularly for trucks, while AAA reported that gasoline prices        

declined modestly in mid-March from one month earlier. Retail sales are 

expected to rise only 0.1% excluding motor vehicles after February's    

0.2% gain.                                                              

Empire State Index for April (diffusion index)                          

 Monday, April 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Empire Index      18.5      18.0 to 20.3               --   22.5   13.1

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to decline to a       

reading of 18.5 in April from 22.5 in March.                            

Business Inventories for February (percent change)                      

 Monday, April 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Inventories   +0.6%       +0.4% to +0.6%               --  +0.6%  +0.6%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.6% in        

February. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.3% in the   

month, while wholesale inventories rose 1.0%. The advance report showed 

a 0.4% gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation  

looks for a 0.6% increase for business inventories, so the median       

forecast suggests analysts see a no revision to retail inventories. As  

for sales, factory shipments rose 0.2%, wholesale sales rose 1.0% and   

the advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.1% decline,         

suggesting a 0.4% gain for business sales, assuming no revision to the  

retail trade sales decline.                                             

Housing Starts for March (annual rate, million)                         

 Tuesday, April 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

           Median            Range                   Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Starts    1.262m      1.230m to 1.290m                 -- 1.236m 1.329m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to accelerate modestly to a 1.262 million annual rate in March 

after sharp movements in the previous two months. The NAHB index slipped

to 70 in March from 71 in February, so there is some downside risk.     

Industrial Production for March (percent change)                        

 Tuesday, April 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

              Median          Range                  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Ind Prod      +0.3%      +0.1% to +0.7%                --  +0.9%  -0.2%

 Cap Util      77.9%      77.7% to 78.1%                --  77.7%  77.0%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% in March  

after a revised 0.9% surge in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose 

by 22,000 in March, while auto production jobs rose by 3,000 and the    

factory workweek was mildly shorter at 40.9 hours, down from 41.0 hours 

in February. The ISM production index fell to a still-strong 61.0 in the

current month from 62.0 in the previous month. Utilities production is  

expected to rebound in the month after a decline in the previous month  

due to warmer-than-usual weather, while mining production is forecast to

post a more modest gain after a February surge. Capacity utilization is 

forecast to rise to 77.9% from 77.7% in January. Annual revisions       

released on March 23 are included in the data.                          

Weekly Jobless Claims for April 14 week                                 

 Thursday, April 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

                 Median         Range                Apr14  Apr07  Mar31

 Weekly Claims     229k       228k to 230k              --   233k   242k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 4,000 to 229,000 in the April 14 employment survey week after a 9,000

decrease in the previous week. Claims were at a level of 227,000 in the 

March 17 employment survey week. The four-week moving average would rise

by 500 in the coming week, as that 227,000 level in the March 17 week   

drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  

there are no revisions.                                                 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for April (diffusion index)          

 Thursday, April 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Phila Fed         20.5      18.0 to 21.3               --   22.3   25.8

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed reading is forecast to dip further  

to a reading of 20.5 in April after falling to 22.3 in the previous     

month.                                                                  

Leading Indicators for March (percent change)                           

 Thursday, April 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Mar18  Feb18  Jan18

 Leading Index    +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.3%              --  +0.6%  +0.8%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.3% in February, continuing the string of solid gains. However, a      

shorter factory workweek, a decline in consumer expectations, and a drop

in the ISM new orders reading provide some downside risk.               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com