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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 1/17:06 EST Jun 1
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.          
Factory Orders for April (percent change)                               
 Monday, June 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
              Median             Range               Apr18  Mar18  Feb18
 New Orders   -0.5%          -0.8% to -0.4%             --  +1.6%  +2.0%
 Ex Transport --                   --                   --  +0.3%  +0.3%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.5% in April.    
Durable goods orders fell by 1.7% in the month on a sharp drop in       
aircraft orders, while nondurables orders are expected to hold roughly  
steady. Factory orders are forecast to be up solidly excluding a large  
drop in the transportation component, as durable orders excluding       
transportation were up 0.9%. Annual revisions released on May 17 will be
included in the data.                                                   
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for May                                     
 Tuesday, June 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
              Median        Range                    May18  Apr18  Mar18
 ISM NMI      57.7       57.1 to 58.0                   --   56.8   58.8
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rise to a  
reading of 57.7 in May from 56.8 in April. The Philadelphia             
nonmanufacturing index rose to 45.3, while the flash Markit Services    
index rose to 55.7.                                                     
Trade in Goods and Services for April (deficit, billion $)              
 Wednesday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
              Median        Range                  Apr18   Mar18   Feb18
 Trade Gap    -$49.0b -$49.8b to -$48.5b              -- -$49.0b -$57.7b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to hold steady at
$49.0 billion in April. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade  
gap narrowed very slightly to $68.2 billion, with exports and exports   
both down 0.5% in the month.                                            
Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)     
 Wednesday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
                   Median           Range           1Q18r   1Q18p   4Q17
 Productivity      +0.6%        +0.3% to +0.7%         --   +0.7%  +0.3%
 Unit Labor Costs  +2.7%        +2.7% to +2.9%         --   +2.7%  +2.1%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised slow only 
modestly to a 0.6% pace in the first quarter from a 0.7% gain in the    
preliminary estimate. Growth in outlays should be revised only slightly 
based on the GDP report. Unit labor costs are expected to be revised    
unrevised at the 2.7% pace seen in the preliminary estimate.            
Weekly Jobless Claims for June 2 week                                   
 Thursday, June 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
                 Median       Range                  Jun02  May26  May19
 Weekly Claims   221k      220k to 226k                 --   221k   234k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to hold  
steady at a 221,000 level in the June 2 holiday week after falling to   
that point in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise
by 2,500 in the coming week as the 211,000 level in the May 5 week drops
out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there  
are no revisions.                                                       
Consumer Credit for April (dollar change, billions)                     
 Thursday, June 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                        Actual:        
              Median        Range                  Apr18   Mar18   Feb18
 Cons Cred    +$15.0   +$14.0 to +$19.9               -- +$11.6b +$13.6b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $15.0 billion in  
April, a bit faster pace than in the previous two months. Retail sales  
were up 0.3%, both including and excluding a 0.1% rise in motor vehicle 
sales. As a result, softer readings for both revolving and nonrevolving 
credit are expected.                                                    
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email:

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