US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 13/17:06 EST Jun 13

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 9 week                                   

 Thursday, June 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

                 Median       Range                  Jun09  Jun02  May26

 Weekly Claims   224k      222k to 225k                 --   222k   223k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 2,000 to 224,000 in the June 9 week after falling by only 1,000 to   

222,000 in the previous week, keeping the level in its tight range. The 

four-week moving average would rise by 250 in the coming week as the    

223,000 level in the May 12 week drops out of the calculation, assuming 

the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                 

Retail and Food Sales for May (percent change)                          

 Thursday, June 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Retail Sales  +0.4%       Flat to +0.6%                --  +0.2%  +0.7%

 Ex-Mtr Veh    +0.5%      +0.2% to +0.6%                --  +0.3%  +0.4%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to increse 0.4% in May after a 

somewhat tamer reading in April. Seasonally adjusted industry motor     

vehicle sales roughly unchanged in May, while AAA reported that gasoline

prices rose sharply in mid-May from one month earlier. Retail sales are 

expected to grow 0.5% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.3% gain in     

April. Annual revisions will be included with the data.                 

Business Inventories for April (percent change)                         

 Thursday, June 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 Inventories  +0.3%        +0.2% to +0.3%               --   Flat  +0.6%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to increase 0.3% in    

April. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.3% in the      

month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.1%. The advance report showed 

a 0.6% gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation  

looks for a 0.3% increase for business inventories, so the median       

forecast suggests analysts see no revisions to retail inventories. As   

for sales, factory shipments were flat, wholesale sales jumped 0.8% and 

the advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.4% gain, suggesting 

a 0.4% rise for business sales, assuming no revision to the retail trade

sales increase. Annual revisions to the factory, wholesale, and retail  

data, all released in late-May, will be included in this month's        

release.                                                                

Empire State Index for June (diffusion index)                           

 Friday, June 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Empire Index    19.1       18.0 to 20.1                --   20.1   15.8

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to soften to a reading

of 19.1 in June after rising to 20.1 in May.                            

Industrial Production for May (percent change)                          

 Friday, June 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

              Median          Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Ind Prod     +0.2%       -0.6% to +0.5%                --  +0.7%  +0.7%

 Cap Util     78.0%       77.4% to 78.2%                --  78.0%  77.6%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to grow 0.2% in May    

after gains in the previous three months. Factory payrolls rose by      

18,000 in May, while auto production jobs fell by 4,000 and the factory 

workweek fell to 40.8 hours from 41.0 hours in April. The ISM production

index rose to 61.5 in the current month from 57.2 in the previous month,

suggesting manufacturing production did not suffer from the slightly    

shorter workweek. Utilities production is expected to slow in the month 

after a weather-related gain in the previous month, but mining          

production could post another gain. Capacity utilization is forecast to 

stay at 78.0%, unchanged from April.                                    

University of Michigan Survey for June (preliminary)                    

 Friday, June 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

                Median        Range                  Jun18p May18  Apr18

 Consumer Sent  98.6       97.0 to 99.0                  --  98.0   98.8

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise modestly

to 98.6 in early-June after falling slightly to 98.0 in May.            

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com