US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 18/17:06 EST Jun 18

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

Housing Starts for May (annual rate, million)                           

 Tuesday, June 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:         

           Median            Range                   May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Starts    1.320m      1.289m to 1.350m                 -- 1.287m 1.336m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to rebound to a 1.320 million annual rate in May after slipping

back in April. The NAHB index rose to 70 in May from 68 in April. As    

inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to  

boost output. The pace of building permits is expected to slip further  

from the revised 1.364 million rate in April.                           

Existing-home Sales for May (annual rate)                               

 Wednesday, June 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:      

                 Median       Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Home Resales     5.49m  5.43m to 5.55m                 --  5.46m  5.60m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to rise      

modestly to a 5.49 million annual rate in May after slipping back to a  

5.46 million rate in April. Pending home sales fell by 1.3% in April, a 

negative sign for existing home sales. Supply of homes for sale remains 

extremely low, keeping prices elevated.                                 

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 16 week                                  

 Thursday, June 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

                 Median       Range                  Jun16  Jun09  Jun02

 Weekly Claims     220k   215k to 225k                  --   218k   222k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by only 2,000 to 220,000 in the June 16 employment survey week after    

falling by 4,000 to 218,000 in the previous week, keeping the level in  

its tight range. Initial claims were at a level of 223,000 in the May 12

employment survey week. The four-week moving average would fall by 3,500

in the coming week as the 234,000 level in the May 19 week drops out of 

the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no  

revisions.                                                              

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for June (diffusion index)           

 Thursday, June 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

                 Median        Range                 Jun18  May18  Apr18

 Phila Fed         29.5    25.0 to 33.1                 --   34.4   23.2

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall back to a 

reading of 29.5 in June after a further rise to 34.4 in May, still      

showing continued acceleration. The Empire State index released June 15 

rose further in the month.                                              

Leading Indicators for May (percent change)                             

 Thursday, June 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

                 Median         Range                May18  Apr18  Mar18

 Leading Index    +0.3%    +0.3% to +0.3%          --  +0.4%  +0.4%     

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.3% in May. Positive contributions are expected from higher consumer   

expectations, ISM new orders, and stock prices.                         

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com