US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for January 12 week                                

 Thursday, January 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jan12  Jan05  Dec29

 Weekly Claims   218k     215k to 225k                  --   216k   233k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 

partially rebound to a reading of 218,000 in the January 12 employment 

survey week after a reversal of 17,000 to 216,000 level in the previous 

week, a continuation of the volatility normally seen at the start of the 

year. The impact of the government shutdown may be seen in coming weeks 

as a portion of the furloughed government workers file for benefits. The 

four-week moving average would rise slightly in the coming week as the 

217,000 level in the December 15 employment survey week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for January (diffusion index)

 Thursday, January 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Phila Fed          9.0     5.0 to 10.0                 --    9.1   11.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall very 

slightly to a reading of 9.0 from a revised 9.1 reading in December. 

Industrial Production for December (percent change)

 Friday, January 18 at 9:15 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Ind Prod      +0.1%     -0.5% to +0.4%                 --  +0.6%  -0.2% 

 Cap Util      78.4%     78.3% to 78.7%                 --  78.5%  78.1%  

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.1% in 

December after a 0.6% rise in November. Factory payrolls rose by 32,000 

in December, while auto production jobs rose by 2,000 and the factory 

workweek lengthened by 0.1 hours to 40.9 hours. However, the ISM 

production index fell to 54.3 in the current month from 60.6 in the 

previous month. Utilities production is expected to slip in the month 

after a 3.3% surge in November, while mining production is forecast to 

decline after a 1.7% gain, with low energy prices a key factor. Capacity 

utilization is forecast to decline to 78.4% from 78.5% in November. 

University of Michigan Survey for January (preliminary)          

 Friday, January 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                Median        Range                 Jan19p  Dec18  Nov18

 Consumer Sent    97.5    95.5 to 99.0                  --   98.3   97.5

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to hold fall to 

97.5 in early-January after rising to 98.3 in December. Financial market 

volatility and the Federal Government shutdown provide the wild cards in 

this month's data.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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