US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Feb 1/17:06 EST Feb 1

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Factory Orders for November (percent change)                             

 Monday, February 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 New Orders     -0.2%    -0.2% to -0.2%                 --  -2.1%  +0.2%

 Ex Transport                                           --  +0.3%  +0.1%

     Comments: Factory orders for November are expected to fall by 0.2%, 

though durable goods orders were up 0.8% in the month. 

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for January 

 Tuesday, February 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 ISM NMI        56.4      56.0 to 57.6                  --   58.0   60.4

     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to fall to 

56.4 in January from a revised 58.0 reading in December. The 

Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing index fell to 1.0, while the Markit 

Services index declined slightly to 54.2. 

Nonfarm Productivity for Fourth Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change) 

 Wednesday, February 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                   Median           Range          4Q18p    3Q18    2Q18

 Productivity       +1.5%       +1.4% to +1.6%        --   +2.3%   +3.0% 

 Unit Labor Costs   +1.8%       +1.7% to +1.9%        --   +0.9%   -2.8%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by 1.5% in the 

preliminary estimate for the fourth quarter after a 2.3% rise in the 

previous quarter. The absence of GDP growth data from the Commerce 

Department will impact this data, as the BLS said it will not be able to 

produce any of its normal headline series. Unit labor costs are expected 

to rise by 1.8% in the quarter, much faster than the 0.9% gain in the 

third quarter. 

Trade in Goods and Services for December (deficit, billion $)           

 Wednesday, February 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                Nov18   Oct18   Sep18

 Trade Gap    -$57.4b   -$60.0b to -$54.8b            -- -$55.5b -$54.6b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $57.4 

billion in November from $55.5 billion in October. With the absence of 

the advance trade data, this report takes on more importance this month. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 2 week                                

 Thursday, February 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jan26  Jan19  Jan12

 Weekly Claims                                          --   253k   200k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

back in the February 2 week after a surge of 53,000 to a 253,000 level 

in the previous week, though it is not likely to payback all of the 

previous week's gains. The volatility in recent weeks can be largely 

attributed to seasonal adjustment issues around the holiday week, 

storms, teachers strikes, and the side effects of the government 

shutdown. The four-week moving average would likely move higher this 

week as the 216,000 level in the January 5 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

Consumer Credit for December (dollar change, billions)                   

 Thursday, February 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Dec18   Nov18   Oct18

 Cons Cred    $18.0b   $18.0 to $18.0                 -- +$22.1b +$25.0b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to grow by $18.0 billion at 

an annual rate in December after solid gains in the previous two months.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]