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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 14/17:06 EST Aug 14
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Weekly Jobless Claims for August 10 week
Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug10 Aug03 Jul27
Weekly Claims 215k 211k to 215k -- 209k 217k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to
rebound to 215,000 in the August 10 week after a decline of 8,000 to
209,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would tick
down only slightly this week as the 216,000 level in the July 13 week
rolls out of the calculation.
Retail and Food Sales for July (percent change)
Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul19 Jun19 May19
Retail Sales +0.3% 0.0% to +0.4% -- +0.4% +0.4%
Ex-Mtr Veh +0.4% +0.2% to +0.6% -- +0.4% +0.4%
Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3% in June after a
0.4% increase in June. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle
sales were unchanged in July, while AAA reported that gasoline prices
ticked up slightly in mid-June after a May dip. Retail sales are
expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles, the same as the June
increase.
Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)
Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range 2Q19p 1Q19 4Q18
Productivity +1.5% +1.0% to +2.1% -- +3.4% +1.3%
Unit Labor Costs +1.9% +1.2% to +3.3% -- -1.6% -0.4%
Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by only 1.5% in
the second quarter after a 3.4% surge in the previous quarter, based on
the slower GDP growth reported for the quarter. Unit labor costs are
expected to rise by 1.9% as a result following declines in the previous
two quarters.
Empire State Index for August (diffusion index)
Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug19 Jul19 Jun19
Empire Index 3.0 -2.0 to +11.2 -- 4.3 -8.6
Comments: The Empire State index is expected to slip back modestly
to a reading of 3.0 in August after rebounding to 4.3 in July.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for August (diffusion index)
Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug19 Jul19 Jun19
Phila Fed 10.0 5.0 to 16.4 -- 21.8 0.3
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a
reading of 10.0 in August after surging to 21.8 in July.
Industrial Production for July (percent change)
Thursday, August 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul19 Jun19 May19
Ind Prod +0.1% -0.3% to +0.5% -- Flat +0.4%
Cap Util 77.9% 77.5% to 78.4% -- 77.9% 78.1%
Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.1% in July
after a flat reading in June. Manufacturing production is likely to be
modest, based on the employment data. Factory payrolls rose by 16,000 in
July, while auto production jobs rose by 10,000, but the factory
workweek was narrowed to 40.4 hours from 40.7 hours in June. The ISM
production index fell to 50.8 in the current month from 54.1 in the
previous month. Utilities production is expected to partially rebound in
the month after a sharp 3.6% decrease in the previous month, while
mining production is forecast to hold steady after a 0.2% gain in the
previous month, with the impact from Hurricane Barry the wild card.
Capacity utilization is forecast to hold steady at 77.9% after falling
to that point in June.
Business Inventories for June (percent change)
Thursday, August 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun19 May19 Apr19
Inventories +0.2% Unch to +0.3% -- +0.3% +0.5%
Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.1%. An MNI
projection after the release of wholesale inventories suggested a flat
reading, so the median forecast suggests an expected upward revision to
retail inventories. Wholesale inventories were flat in the month, while
factory inventories rose 0.2% and the advance reading for retail
inventories was a 0.1% decline. For sales, advance retail sales rose
0.4% in June, while factory shipments rose 0.4%, and wholesale sales
fell 0.3%, projecting a 0.2% gain for business sales pending any
revision to the retail data.
Housing Starts for July (annual rate, million)
Friday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul19 Jun19 May19
Starts 1.257m 1.205m to 1.300m -- 1.253m 1.265m
Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to move only
modestly higher to a 1.257 million annual rate after slowing to 1.253
million in June. The NAHB index ticked up modestly in the month. Starts
were modestly above their year ago levels, but permits were down
sharply, an indication that home building remains sluggish.
University of Michigan Survey for August (preliminary)
Friday, August 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug19p Jul19 Jun19
Consumer Sent 96.9 98.9 to 94.8 -- 98.4 98.2
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to fall to a
96.9 reading in early-August after rising to 98.4 in July. Trade war
concerns are likely to weigh on sentiment, particularly the resulting
plunge in stock prices.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.