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Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Aug 14/17:06 EST Aug 14
     
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.                                                       
                                                                        
Weekly Jobless Claims for August 10 week                                
 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:      
               Median         Range                  Aug10  Aug03  Jul27
 Weekly Claims   215k      211k to 215k                 --   209k   217k
                                                                        
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       
rebound to 215,000 in the August 10 week after a decline of 8,000 to    
209,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would tick   
down only slightly this week as the 216,000 level in the July 13 week   
rolls out of the calculation.                                           
                                                                        
Retail and Food Sales for July (percent change)                         
 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19
 Retail Sales   +0.3%     0.0% to +0.4%               --    +0.4%  +0.4%
 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.4%    +0.2% to +0.6%               --    +0.4%  +0.4%
                                                                        
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3% in June after a
0.4% increase in June. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle   
sales were unchanged in July, while AAA reported that gasoline prices   
ticked up slightly in mid-June after a May dip. Retail sales are        
expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles, the same as the June    
increase.                                                               
                                                                        
Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, preliminary (ann rate % change)
 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:     
                   Median           Range          2Q19p    1Q19    4Q18
 Productivity       +1.5%      +1.0% to +2.1%         --   +3.4%   +1.3%
 Unit Labor Costs   +1.9%      +1.2% to +3.3%         --   -1.6%   -0.4%
                                                                        
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by only 1.5% in 
the second quarter after a 3.4% surge in the previous quarter, based on 
the slower GDP growth reported for the quarter. Unit labor costs are    
expected to rise by 1.9% as a result following declines in the previous 
two quarters.                                                           
                                                                        
Empire State Index for August (diffusion index)                         
 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Aug19  Jul19  Jun19
Empire Index        3.0    -2.0 to +11.2                --    4.3   -8.6
                                                                        
     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to slip back modestly 
to a reading of 3.0 in August after rebounding to 4.3 in July.          
                                                                        
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for August (diffusion index)         
 Thursday, August 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Aug19  Jul19  Jun19
 Phila Fed         10.0     5.0 to 16.4                 --   21.8    0.3
                                                                        
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a      
reading of 10.0 in August after surging to 21.8 in July.                
                                                                        
Industrial Production for July (percent change)                         
 Thursday, August 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median          Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19
 Ind Prod      +0.1%     -0.3% to +0.5%                 --   Flat  +0.4%
 Cap Util      77.9%     77.5% to 78.4%                 --  77.9%  78.1%
                                                                        
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.1% in July
after a flat reading in June. Manufacturing production is likely to be  
modest, based on the employment data. Factory payrolls rose by 16,000 in
July, while auto production jobs rose by 10,000, but the factory        
workweek was narrowed to 40.4 hours from 40.7 hours in June. The ISM    
production index fell to 50.8 in the current month from 54.1 in the     
previous month. Utilities production is expected to partially rebound in
the month after a sharp 3.6% decrease in the previous month, while      
mining production is forecast to hold steady after a 0.2% gain in the   
previous month, with the impact from Hurricane Barry the wild card.     
Capacity utilization is forecast to hold steady at 77.9% after falling  
to that point in June.                                                  
                                                                        
Business Inventories for June (percent change)                          
 Thursday, August 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median           Range                 Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Inventories   +0.2%       Unch to +0.3%                --  +0.3%  +0.5%
                                                                        
     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.1%. An MNI
projection after the release of wholesale inventories suggested a flat  
reading, so the median forecast suggests an expected upward revision to 
retail inventories. Wholesale inventories were flat in the month, while 
factory inventories rose 0.2% and the advance reading for retail        
inventories was a 0.1% decline. For sales, advance retail sales rose    
0.4% in June, while factory shipments rose 0.4%, and wholesale sales    
fell 0.3%, projecting a 0.2% gain for business sales pending any        
revision to the retail data.                                            
                                                                        
Housing Starts for July (annual rate, million)                          
 Friday, August 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Jul19  Jun19  May19
 Starts    1.257m      1.205m to 1.300m                --  1.253m 1.265m
                                                                        
     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to move only      
modestly higher to a 1.257 million annual rate after slowing to 1.253   
million in June. The NAHB index ticked up modestly in the month. Starts 
were modestly above their year ago levels, but permits were down        
sharply, an indication that home building remains sluggish.             
                                                                        
University of Michigan Survey for August (preliminary)                  
 Friday, August 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:     
                Median        Range                  Aug19p  Jul19 Jun19
Consumer Sent     96.9    98.9 to 94.8                  --    98.4  98.2
                                                                        
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to fall to a    
96.9 reading in early-August after rising to 98.4 in July. Trade war    
concerns are likely to weigh on sentiment, particularly the resulting   
plunge in stock prices.                                                 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]