US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 1/17:06 EST Jun 1

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.          

Factory Orders for April (percent change)                               

 Monday, June 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

              Median             Range               Apr18  Mar18  Feb18

 New Orders   -0.5%          -0.8% to -0.4%             --  +1.6%  +2.0%

 Ex Transport --                   --                   --  +0.3%  +0.3%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.5% in April.    

Durable goods orders fell by 1.7% in the month on a sharp drop in       

aircraft orders, while nondurables orders are expected to hold roughly  

steady. Factory orders are forecast to be up solidly excluding a large  

drop in the transportation component, as durable orders excluding       

transportation were up 0.9%. Annual revisions released on May 17 will be

included in the data.                                                   

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for May                                     

 Tuesday, June 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median        Range                    May18  Apr18  Mar18

 ISM NMI      57.7       57.1 to 58.0                   --   56.8   58.8

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rise to a  

reading of 57.7 in May from 56.8 in April. The Philadelphia             

nonmanufacturing index rose to 45.3, while the flash Markit Services    

index rose to 55.7.                                                     

Trade in Goods and Services for April (deficit, billion $)              

 Wednesday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Apr18   Mar18   Feb18

 Trade Gap    -$49.0b -$49.8b to -$48.5b              -- -$49.0b -$57.7b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to hold steady at

$49.0 billion in April. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade  

gap narrowed very slightly to $68.2 billion, with exports and exports   

both down 0.5% in the month.                                            

Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)     

 Wednesday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                   Median           Range           1Q18r   1Q18p   4Q17

 Productivity      +0.6%        +0.3% to +0.7%         --   +0.7%  +0.3%

 Unit Labor Costs  +2.7%        +2.7% to +2.9%         --   +2.7%  +2.1%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised slow only 

modestly to a 0.6% pace in the first quarter from a 0.7% gain in the    

preliminary estimate. Growth in outlays should be revised only slightly 

based on the GDP report. Unit labor costs are expected to be revised    

unrevised at the 2.7% pace seen in the preliminary estimate.            

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 2 week                                   

 Thursday, June 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median       Range                  Jun02  May26  May19

 Weekly Claims   221k      220k to 226k                 --   221k   234k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to hold  

steady at a 221,000 level in the June 2 holiday week after falling to   

that point in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise

by 2,500 in the coming week as the 211,000 level in the May 5 week drops

out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there  

are no revisions.                                                       

Consumer Credit for April (dollar change, billions)                     

 Thursday, June 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Apr18   Mar18   Feb18

 Cons Cred    +$15.0   +$14.0 to +$19.9               -- +$11.6b +$13.6b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $15.0 billion in  

April, a bit faster pace than in the previous two months. Retail sales  

were up 0.3%, both including and excluding a 0.1% rise in motor vehicle 

sales. As a result, softer readings for both revolving and nonrevolving 

credit are expected.                                                    

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com