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US DATA: Marginal Progress In Breadth of CPI Core Services

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • The share of the entire CPI basket growing in excess of 3% Y/Y again held steady in September, having plateaued at 31-32% of the ~190 categories in our calculations since June.
  • It has clearly seen significant progress from the 40% at end-2023 and 72% at end-2022 but it currently hovers above the 24% averaged in 2019 or a longer-term average of 19%.
  • Looking specifically within core items, the breakdown is slowly becoming more favorable for the FOMC but there is a long way to go.
  • The 18% of core goods growing >3% Y/Y is up from 14% in June but remains consistent with pre-pandemic levels.
  • Meanwhile, the equivalent share for core services eased to 61% for its lowest since Feb 2022. It’s trending lower when looking through month-to-month swings, but it’s doing so at a rate that will take a very long while to return to the 38% averaged in 2019 or 34% over the longer-term. 

 

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  • The share of the entire CPI basket growing in excess of 3% Y/Y again held steady in September, having plateaued at 31-32% of the ~190 categories in our calculations since June.
  • It has clearly seen significant progress from the 40% at end-2023 and 72% at end-2022 but it currently hovers above the 24% averaged in 2019 or a longer-term average of 19%.
  • Looking specifically within core items, the breakdown is slowly becoming more favorable for the FOMC but there is a long way to go.
  • The 18% of core goods growing >3% Y/Y is up from 14% in June but remains consistent with pre-pandemic levels.
  • Meanwhile, the equivalent share for core services eased to 61% for its lowest since Feb 2022. It’s trending lower when looking through month-to-month swings, but it’s doing so at a rate that will take a very long while to return to the 38% averaged in 2019 or 34% over the longer-term.