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US DATA: No Sign Of Regional Distortion Behind Surprise OER Strength

US DATA
  • OER inflation provided one of the most notable upside surprises to the August CPI report, at a seasonally adjusted 0.50% M/M vs average estimates of 0.30 M/M.
  • It was the strongest since January when it spiked 0.56% M/M.
  • Note that unlike January, when it was helped by OER from the southern region (by far the largest for home sales) increasing at a faster rate than any other region, this time around all major regions accelerated on the month.
  • Looking at the regional NSA data: Midwest (0.66% after 0.37), Northeast (0.58% after 0.41), South (0.45% after 0.31) and West (0.39% after 0.37).
  • As noted earlier, tenants’ rents were also stronger than expected at 0.37% M/M as they only partially reversed the 0.49% M/M spike to leave the monthly pace exactly in line with the 1H24 average of 0.37% M/M (after 0.45 in 2H23 and 0.59 in 1H23).
  • The regional picture is more mixed here. NSA M/M changes: Northeast (0.69 after 0.47), Midwest (0.49 after 0.49), South (0.33 after 0.33) and the West (0.24 after 0.46)

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