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US DATA: No Surprises In Existing Home Sales, Still Near Post-Pandemic Lows

US DATA
  • Existing home sales were as expected in July at 3.95m (cons 3.94m) after a marginally upward revised 3.90m (initial 3.89m). 
  • It saw sales increase a tepid 1.3% M/M after the -5.1% in June rounded off an 11% cumulative decline through Feb-Jun. 
  • Increases were primarily driven by the northeast (4.3%, smallest region) whilst the other three major regions were only 0-1.4% higher. 
  • There’s no real surprises on the supply side either: months of supply stood at 4.0, still close to the 4.2 average in July’s through 2017-19 as it consolidated the prior relative jump in June to 4.1 vs a pre-pandemic average of 4.2.
  • Median price growth meanwhile was largely steady at 4.2% Y/Y after 4.1%.  
  • There is little sign of uplift from declining mortgage rates in the existing home sales data, which continue to hover close to post-pandemic lows. Latest mortgage applications suggest little change is imminent either with refis jumping but new purchase applications broadly trending sideways also near recent lows. 

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