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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell from -17 to -19 in August, disappointing a sample of just four analysts looking for -14.
- By nudging lower, it set a fresh low since Apr/May 2020 and before that 2008/09.
- New orders fell from -23 to -26 to push below -23/-24 readings from late 2022/1H23 for also back at levels only seen in the pandemic or 2008/09.
- This release rounds out a month of mixed regional Fed mfg surveys: Philly sharply corrected lower after spiking in July (-7.0 after +13.9), Richmond maintained prior weakness (-19 after -17), Empire has been unusually stable in the last three months (-4.7 after -6.6) whilst Kansas (-3 after -13) and Dallas (-9.7 after -17.5) both improved from weak July readings.
- Taken together, they imply that the ISM mfg’s decline from 48.5 to 46.8 looks outsized, and indeed consensus look for a partial recovery to 47.9 for the Sep 3 release.
- Looking at new orders across regions, Richmond sees stand out weakness (possibly at least partly linked to Boeing’s cancellation in June, although national aircraft orders did bounce in latest July durable goods data) but equally the Philly Fed strength also looks in isolation – see charts.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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