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US DATA: State Labor Data Offer Arguably Hawkish Takeaways [2/2]

US DATA
  • Further, on the payrolls side, California didn’t see any notable weakness in payrolls growth in July despite accounting for the majority of the rise in temporary layoffs per GS analysis (which drove more than 70% of July’s rise in unemployment). 
  • It’s 21k monthly increase was unchanged from June and in line with the 2019 average. 
  • Of the largest states, only Texas is of dovish note, falling 15k in July (when Hurricane Beryl hit) but it follows a larger than first thought 9k decline in June. The latest three-month average of 4k compares to a pre-pandemic average of 22k, with the relative weakness still of note considering it’s the second largest state by employment.
  • NY on the flipside is growing far stronger than pre-pandemic trends – see table. 

 

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