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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Missing from most calendars, state employment and unemployment data for July are also released at 1000ET today.
- The share of states triggering individual Sahm rule thresholds has received plenty of analyst attention in recent months and we have cautioned putting too much weigh on it – see here after June’s release.
- We expect greater focus on the individual state payrolls data this month, and will be watching Texas and California most closely.
- First though, a health warning on these data. This from the BLS directly: “State estimation procedures are designed to produce accurate data for each individual state. BLS independently develops a national employment series; state estimates are not forced to sum to national totals. Each state series is subject to larger relative sampling and nonsampling errors than the national series.”
- With that disclaimer in mind, Texas is watched after jobless claims spiked higher after Hurricane Beryl whilst California is watched after Goldman Sachs analysis of microdata behind the national payrolls report.
- It’s well known that more than 70% of the July rise in household employment was driven by temporary layoffs. More interesting was GS analysis that around 35% of the rise in temporary layoffs was in Midwestern sates but the largest increase was in California.
- We note that Californian nonfarm payroll growth has recently been tracking at a pace in line with the 2019 average. Texas has as well over a three-month basis, although it did see a 1k decline in June (i.e. far before any potential hurricane impact) which we watch for any persistence in July.
- For what it’s worth, initial jobless claims in California have shown no sign of unusual increases over the summer weeks so far.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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