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US DATA: U.Mich Labor Components Don’t Show Any Further Deterioration

US DATA
  • The U.Mich consumer survey saw overall sentiment surprise a little higher in August with 67.8 (cons 66.9) after 66.4 as a surprise decline in current conditions (from 62.7 to 60.9) was offset by firmer expectations (from 68.8 to 72.1). 
  • Within the labor components, the share expecting unemployment to increase twelve months ahead was unchanged at 35% - that’s still somewhat historically elevated but has averaged a similar figure for a year now and is down from 40s at the turn of 2022/23.  
  • The perceived probability of losing a job over the next five years fell 2pps to 18%, also close to the average for the past year whilst pulling back from the 20% that was joint highs since late 2020. 
  • The average probability of receiving an adequate retirement income meanwhile increased 1pp further to 46% (after a 9pp jump in July) for a new series high going back to 1997. It comes with the 55+ participation rate resolutely sticking about 2pps below pre-pandemic levels. 

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