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Selling In White IRs As Bond Futures Nudge Lower

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AUCTION‌ ‌PREVIEW:‌ ACGB Jun '31 Supply Due

MYR

Ringgit Extends Gains, Malaysian CPI Eyed

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Futures Look Below Overnight Troughs

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U.S. Tsy Moves Likely To Pressure JGBs At Re-Open

     
Source: U.S. Treasury, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
Billions of U.S. dollars
                            Mar-18    Feb-18   Jan-18   Dec-17   Nov-17   Oct-17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                       230/225   223/228  247/245  235/241  237/234  241/252
wk 2                       226/223   234/230  226/241  229/236  250/239  230/246
wk 3                       227/225   218/227  229/238  242/236  239/240  234/240
wk 4                       215/225   217/223  234/234  242/237  239/241  234/235
wk 5                                                   248/240
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +313k    +239k    +175k    +216k    +271k
Private Payrolls                       +287k    +238k    +174k    +217k    +277k
Mfg Payroll                             +31k     +25k     +39k     +30k     +20k
Unemployment                            4.1%     4.1%     4.1%     4.1%     4.1%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.4     34.5     34.5     34.4
Avg Hours - Mfg                         41.0     40.8     40.8     40.9     40.9
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.6%    -0.1%    +0.2%    +0.5%    +0.5%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   +0.6%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.4%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.3%    -0.2%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.2%    +0.4%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.5%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.4%    -0.1%    +0.2%    +0.5%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%
CPI                                    +0.2%    +0.5%    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.1%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Import Prices                          +0.4%    +0.8%    +0.2%    +1.0%    +0.2%
non-petro import prices                +0.5%    +0.5%    -0.1%    +0.2%     Flat
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index       78.1      74.2     72.7     69.0     65.5     68.5
PCE Price Index M/M                    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                    +1.8%    +1.7%    +1.7%    +1.7%    +1.6%
Core PCE Price Index M/M               +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y               +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%    +1.5%
Treasury Budget (bn)                 -$215.2   +$49.2   -$23.2  -$138.5   -$63.2
Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$13.9   +$19.2   +$30.9   +$22.8
CB Consumer Confidence       127.7     130.0    124.3    123.1    128.6    126.2
Consumer Sentiment           102.0      99.7     95.7     95.9     98.5    100.7
Car Sales, saar (mn)                     3.9      3.8      4.1      4.3      4.4
Truck Sales, saar (mn)                   8.9      9.0      9.5      9.0      9.4
Total, saar (mn)                        12.8     12.8     13.6     13.3     13.8
Retail Sales                           -0.1%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.8%    +0.7%
excl motor vehicles                    +0.2%    +0.1%     Flat    +1.2%    +0.5%
Personal Income                        +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.4%
Personal Spending                      +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.7%    +0.3%
ISM Mfg Index                 59.3      60.8     59.1     59.3     58.2     58.5
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          59.5     59.9     56.0     57.3     59.8
MNI Chicago Report            57.4      61.9     65.7     67.8     65.6     65.4
Phila Fed Mfg Index           22.3      25.8     22.2     27.9     24.3     28.8
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index        30.1      31.0     19.5     29.4     25.6     33.4
Empire State Index            22.5      13.1     17.7     19.6     20.9     28.1
KC Fed Mfg Index                17        17       16       13       15       22
Richmond Fed Mfg Index          15        28       14       20       30       12
Dallas Fed Mfg Index          21.4      37.2     33.4     29.7     19.4     27.6
Markit Mfg Index              55.6      55.3     55.5     55.1     53.9     54.6
Markit Services Index      54.1(a)      55.9     53.3     53.7     54.5     55.3
Ind Production                         +0.9%    -0.2%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +1.6%
Capacity Util                          77.7%    77.0%    77.3%    77.0%    76.8%
Factory Orders                                  -1.4%    +1.8%    +1.7%    +0.4%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.4%    +0.9%    +1.1%    +1.2%
Durables                               +3.1%    -3.5%    +2.7%    +1.7%    -0.4%
Durables ex transport                  +1.2%    -0.2%    +0.8%    +0.4%    +1.4%
Nondurables                                     +0.8%    +0.9%    +1.6%    +1.1%
Mfg Shipments                                   +0.6%    +0.7%    +1.4%    +0.8%
Business Inventories                            +0.6%    +0.6%    +0.4%     Flat
Factory                                         +0.3%    +0.7%    +0.5%    +0.3%
Retail                              +0.4%(a)    +0.7%    +0.3%    +0.2%     Flat
Wholesale                           +1.1%(a)    +0.8%    +0.7%    +0.6%    -0.4%
Housing Starts (mn)                    1.236    1.329    1.207    1.299    1.261
Building Permits (mn)                  1.321    1.377    1.300    1.303    1.316
NAHB Index                      70        71       72       74       69       68
New Home Sales (k)                       618      622      653      711      616
Existing Homes (mn)                     5.54     5.38     5.56     5.72     5.50
Pending Home Sales Index               107.5    104.3    109.8    109.8    109.4
Construct Spending                     +0.1%     Flat    +1.6%    +1.2%    +0.1%
Private Residential                    +0.1%    +0.1%    +1.6%    +1.2%    -1.0%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$56.6   -$53.9   -$50.9   -$49.1
Exports (bn)                                   $200.9   $203.6   $200.2   $195.7
Imports (bn)                                   $257.5   $257.5   $251.1   $244.8
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                  -$75.4   -$76.5   -$73.7   -$71.1   -$69.5
Leading Index                          +0.6%    +0.8%    +0.7%    +0.4%    +1.3%
                                       Q4-17             Q3-17             Q2-17
GDP (chain-wt)                         +2.9%             +3.2%             +3.1%
Final Sales                            +3.4%             +2.4%             +2.9%
Chain prices                           +2.3%             +2.1%             +1.0%
Current-dollar                         +5.3%             +5.3%             +4.1%
                                       Q4-17             Q3-17             Q2-17
Nonfarm Productivity                    Flat             +2.7%             +1.5%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs               +2.5%             -0.1%             +0.3%
                                       Q4-17             Q3-17             Q2-17
ECI (q/q)                              +0.6%             +0.7%             +0.5%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDT$,MNUAU$,M$U$$$,M$$FI$]