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US Diesel Falls with Softer Backwardation as Cracks Test Oct Lows

DIESEL

US diesel futures have fallen to the lowest since July as demand fears weigh on the wider oil market. The curve backwardation has also softened as a sign of easing supply tightness. The front month diesel crack spread is falling towards the lows around 38.4$/bbl seen a couple of times during October.

  • Trucking demand for fuel in the US remains slow as a freight recession persists according to Bob Costella at American trucking Associations. A turnaround will be driven by “supply leaving the industry rather than a big jump in demand in the quarters ahead”, said Costello.
  • Europe spreads are also weaker with the Gasoil Dec23-Dec24 spread falling to the lowest since July at 49$/mt compared to a peak of 124$/mt in September. The prompt spread has also dipped but is holding onto more strength with near term supplies still considered fairly tight amid low global distillates inventories.
    • Gasoil NOV 23 down -2.4% at 818.75$/mt
    • ULSD DEC 23 down -0.3% at 2.74$/gal
    • Gasoil NOV 23-DEC 23 down -4$/mt at 29.25$/mt
    • Gasoil DEC 23-DEC 24 down -8.75$/mt at 49$/mt
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down -1$/bbl at 24.26$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -1.1$/bbl at 38.88$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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