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US End of Winter Gas Storage Estimates Revised Lower: JPM

NATGAS

US natural gas is forecast to end the traditional withdrawal period at the end of March with 1.94Tcf of storage with end of October storage down at 3.95Tcf, assuming normal weather for February and March according to JP Morgan.

  • The forecast has been revised down from 2.1Tcf and 4.1Tcf estimated late last year as storage congestion risk has disappeared.
  • Cold weather this month will offset some of the demand loss from December with increased demand as well as a reduction in supply from wellhead freeze-offs.
  • January weather will likely increase demand by 1bcf/day with 19 HDDS above the 10-year normal at around 933 HDDs. Freeze-offs could impact January production by as much as 1.1bcf/day.
  • Production growth is the main risk to a bullish forecast of $4/mmBtu during Q4 2024 but Henry Hub could be tighter if Haynesville output is unable to grow.
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