US Fall Maintenance Set to Be 11% Higher y/y

US fall refinery maintenance is on track for its heaviest since before the pandemic.

• Energy Aspects places offline maintenance at 2.5mn bpd combined across September through end November – 11% higher than a year prior.
• Q1 2024 maintenance is projected to be the heaviest ever seasonally.
• As of Friday, an average of 526,000 barrels per day of US processing capacity was expected to be offline for planned work in September, 1.48 million barrels in October, 452,000 barrels in November and nothing in December, according to Energy Aspects.
• Leaks, fires and a hot summer have weighed on US refining infrastructure in recent months.
• “In 2023, we’re seeing a lot of unplanned outages,” said Austin Lin, principal analyst for refining and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie. “There’s been a continued tendency to defer and minimize maintenance where possible.”
• Diesel margins remain strong but falling gasoline margins are encouraging more units to go down for repair.
• Shell Norco, Exxon’s Baytown and Motiva Port Arthur are notable recent crude unit turnarounds in late September.